#数字资产市场洞察 $ETH $BTC

In the last two weeks of the year, the economic calendar is densely packed with significant data releases, completely opening up the volatility space in the crypto market. Beneath the calm surface, various forces are competing in the shadows.

**Tuesday is a key window**
The US GDP growth rate and PCE price index have both come in strong. One reflects economic growth, while the other measures inflation. If the economy slows down significantly but prices remain high, the Federal Reserve will be more cautious about cutting interest rates, which will put pressure on cryptocurrencies due to the appreciation of the dollar. Conversely, if both indicators are positive, pointing to expectations of a soft landing for the economy, risk assets may see a rebound.

**Wednesdays are often overlooked, but don't take them lightly**
The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes and the U.S. initial jobless claims data. These two signals may seem scattered, but they actually touch on the core of global liquidity—if employment data suddenly worsens, market risk appetite will significantly decline. In an environment where trading is already thin at the end of the year, any adverse data could be amplified.

**Most global markets closed for Christmas on Thursday**
In a situation of liquidity exhaustion, the fluctuations triggered by the data from the past two days need time to digest. Some see this as a bottom-fishing opportunity, while others view it as a trap; the key depends on your judgment of the subsequent market trends.

**Essentially**, Bitcoin and Ethereum are now caught in a tug-of-war between two forces—long-term expectations for a Bitcoin spot ETF are still fermenting, while in the short term, they are highly controlled by the Federal Reserve's policy path. This week's data serves as a mid-term test.

What is your prediction? Do you think the big market movement is still ahead, or do you feel it will be a consolidation by the end of the year? See you in the comments.