2025-12-19 08:21:19

The actions taken by the Bank of Japan today have attracted widespread market attention, but what is truly worth警惕 is not the 25 basis point rate hike itself.

In its statement, the central bank emphasized one sentence: "If economic and price trends align with forecasts, policy rates will continue to be raised." This seemingly ordinary statement sends a very different signal—it is not a one-time "bullish reversal," but an announcement of a continued tightening cycle.

🚨 Why is this more dangerous than a simple rate hike?

Markets typically price in "known facts" quickly, but "future expectations" tend to cause long-term jitters. The Bank of Japan has sent three clear signals: this rate hike is not an isolated event but the prelude to a series of actions; subsequent steps will be driven by economic data; as long as conditions are met, actions will continue.

Japan, which once served as the world's "cheap funding provider" for 30 years, is now proactively tightening the faucet. Those large-scale yen arbitrage trades that support global risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—are now entering a long structural downturn.

📉 What lessons does history give us?

Looking at Japan's previous rate hike cycles, BTC's reaction pattern is not actually a direct sell-off. The usual pattern is: sideways movement first, then technical rebound, followed by a prolonged decline. The danger of an "interest rate hike cycle" is that it does not cause an instant explosion but exerts continuous pressure, gradually draining liquidity.

💡 The most common pitfall right now

Don't be fooled by "rebound after bad news." That is just a rebound, not a reversal. The Bank of Japan has made its stance very clear: interest rates are going up, and the valve is slowly closing.

To assess the true medium-term impact on the crypto market, keep an eye on these key indicators: Will the yen continue to strengthen? Will US Treasury yields be passively pulled higher by the attractiveness of Japanese bonds? Is the scale of global carry trade shrinking in a trend?

If any two of these three indicators materialize, then the pressure on risk assets like BTC is not just short-term volatility but structural.

⚡ Bottom-line judgment

The Bank of Japan's announcement of continued rate hikes = global liquidity entering a slow contraction phase = the medium-term outlook for crypto assets facing structural pressure. This is not a minor event; it warrants attention.

BTC-1,1%

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BlockchainRetirementHome

· 2025-12-21 18:11

The Japanese yen's interest rate hike really can’t hold on anymore, this time it's not a one-off deal. --- The feeling of carry trade being on life support, the continuous gradual tightening of the faucet is truly a nightmare. --- Damn, now I have to keep an eye on a bunch of indicators like US Treasuries and Japanese bonds, when will it finally calm down? --- Rebound ≠ reversal, this phrase hits hard, how many people are going to pay tuition here? --- Talking about liquidity shrinking is easy, but matters concerning coins are not that easy. --- Is Japan really going to give up its role as the 30-year financial backer? This is scarier than the interest rate hike itself. --- What’s 25 basis points? The key is how many more basis points are waiting behind. --- It looks like we have to be prepared for a protracted battle, the downward movement is the most exhausting. --- If two out of three indicators are fulfilled, we have to admit defeat; I bet the yen will remain strong. --- Another round of "known does not equal digested" torment, the schedule for playing people for suckers is back.

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GasFeeTherapist

· 2025-12-19 11:18

The end of yen arbitrage, this time it's a big deal --- Everyone seems to be watching the rate hike numbers, but the core issue is actually that Japan is really starting to shrink its balance sheet --- "Continuous rate hikes" sound uncomfortable, but that's the real killer --- Now liquidity will slowly evaporate, don't be fooled by short-term rebounds --- The key is to watch the subsequent trend of the yen, that’s the signal --- Projects that relied on yen arbitrage should be cautious --- To put it simply, the era of cheap capital is over, and you need to carefully review your holdings --- I believe in the "sideways then gradual decline" pattern; history has played out this way before --- A rebound ≠ a reversal, many people haven't understood this principle --- The real pressure comes from expectations, not the 25 basis points themselves

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MoonMathMagic

· 2025-12-19 08:29

The Japanese Yen is making a comeback, is the carry trade doomed? --- Honestly, this round isn't something to fear from rate hikes themselves; it's the series of actions afterward that are deadly. --- Here we go again, all rebounds are fake rebounds, I've learned that. --- Liquidity tightening will really slowly choke off risk assets, it's uncomfortable. --- Looking forward to the show, the Bank of Japan starting a tightening cycle means BTC is in for a rough ride. --- If the carry trade really collapses, that would be a major event, we need to keep a close eye. --- History repeats itself; the stealth decline during rate hike cycles is the most torturous. --- Don't be so pessimistic; after a rebound, we can look at the data again to make a judgment. --- Structural pressure is coming; short-term volatility shouldn't be taken too seriously. --- The strengthening of the Japanese Yen itself is a signal; there will definitely be more later.

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WhaleShadow

· 2025-12-19 08:25

The yen carry trade game is really coming to an end, now the bears have some confidence.

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