After waking up from a nap, I reorganized my thoughts. The update this morning was indeed rushed. The BOJ's rate hike foot has dropped, but the market has shown little volatility—this is actually quite normal because the market had already priced in this expectation in advance.

Carefully examining the statements from the BOJ Governor, the signals conveyed have been misunderstood. This is not a "comprehensive shift towards tightening" as the market imagines, but rather a small step away from an extremely loose stance towards a more normal range. He repeatedly emphasized several points: Japan has not entered an aggressive rate hike cycle, nor is there a fixed schedule for hikes. Future actions will depend entirely on inflation data, wage growth, and whether the economic fundamentals can truly stabilize, rather than following a preset process like the Federal Reserve.

The most critical observation point is quite clear—short-term price fluctuations are just clouds; what truly matters is whether wage growth and inflation can form a self-reinforcing positive cycle. If companies cannot sustain wage increases, inflation will lose its endogenous momentum, and the central bank will not rashly continue tightening monetary policy. He also clearly signaled stability, stating that they will closely monitor Japanese government bond yields, exchange rate fluctuations, and the overall response of financial markets. It’s obvious they don’t want a rate hike to trigger a market shock all at once.

Therefore, this move is essentially a test, with a cautious attitude, a slow pace, and room for maneuver. It’s like telling the market: I am moving, but this is far from a signal of a comprehensive tightening.

Many might ask at this point—should I start bottom-fishing? The answer actually depends on how you break it down. At this stage, you should consider short-term opportunities rather than going all-in. With the Christmas holiday approaching, effective trading in Japan is already limited, liquidity has been weak for years, and today is also the quadruple witching day in the US stock market, making short-term volatility risks quite high. This time window is not about making precise judgments but about position management and rhythm control.

Honestly, I’ve always had doubts about the term "bottom-fishing." If it means reckless full-position buying, then objectively, it’s not the right time now. If you just want to try small amounts and test the market’s temperament, go ahead based on your own judgment—don’t overthink it. The key is to recognize your risk tolerance and true objectives, rather than being driven by market sentiment.