The next Federal Reserve Chair must be dovish — this is no longer an implication but outright pressure.

In his speech, Trump directly stated that the new Fed Chair must support significant rate cuts, and even that rate decisions should be regularly discussed with him. What market logic is hidden behind this? And what kind of turbulence might it bring to the crypto market?

**Focus Point 1: 1% "Crisis-Level" Rate Cut**

Currently, the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate is stuck between 3.5% and 3.75%, but Trump’s target is very clear — 1%. His idea is simple and straightforward: lower interest rates, mortgage rates follow suit, stimulate the economy, and voters can feel the real benefits. It sounds perfect, but will the market really follow this script?

**Focus Point 2: Three Candidates Are All Doves, But None Dare Go to Extremes**

The list on the table includes White House economic advisor Kevin Hasset, former Fed Governor Kevin Woeh, and current Governor Chris Waller. They all share a common point — support for rate cuts. But that’s the problem: no one dares to directly jump to the 1% level. Even the new governor appointed by Trump has avoided crossing this line.

**Focus Point 3: The Real Minefield Is Central Bank Independence**

Rate cuts themselves are not the biggest threat. What truly makes Wall Street nervous is the statement Trump made — that the Fed Chair should discuss rate decisions with him. This directly touches the most sensitive bottom line of financial markets: the independence of the central bank.

Although Waller leans dovish, he also emphasized that rate cuts can be implemented gradually, and political forces should not directly interfere with the Federal Open Market Committee’s voting. Once markets start doubting that the Fed has become a "White House branch," the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and various risk assets will be forced to reprice. This uncertainty will have a direct impact on the crypto market.

**Focus Point 4: Rate Cuts Do Not Guarantee Mortgage Rates Will Drop**

There is a common overlooked logical reality — the power to set mortgage rates does not lie with the Fed. What truly influences mortgage rates are the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, inflation expectations, and overall economic outlook.

Even if the Fed lowers the benchmark rate, as long as inflation remains sticky, the fiscal deficit continues to expand, mortgage rates will stay stuck at around 6.3% to 6.4% and won’t move. There is a gap between policy tools and market realities.

**The Essence of the Issue**

What Trump truly wants to change is not just the rate cuts but the entire power structure of monetary policy. When the independence of the central bank is questioned, and political interference becomes a possibility rather than just a theoretical risk, market confidence begins to waver. For the crypto market, this could be both a risk and an opportunity — depending on how the market interprets this power game.