#大户持仓动态 Q4 data is indeed eye-catching — $BTC has fallen nearly 24%, and $ETH has dropped over 30%. Looking at these numbers, many people are starting to feel nervous, but from on-chain movements, this is actually a signal.

What does a sharp decline mean? The bubble is being squeezed, and irrational funds are flowing out. Although there is still selling pressure on-chain, this is part of the market's self-correction process. History provides us with an example — after the big drop in 2018, $BTC eventually broke new highs. The same pattern, different cycle.

The current situation is like a shakeout. Short-term pressure is a fact, but from bottom signals, more and more signs indicate that the bottom-fishing opportunity is accumulating. Panic emotions are in place, which usually means the rebound chips are already distributed.

Rather than doubting yourself over the decline data, it’s better to observe the movements of large on-chain holders — what they are doing is often more honest than public opinion. When the market is cold, it’s the best time to observe and position. The probability of a rebound next year is not low; the key is whether we can stay clear-headed now.