#美联储降息 December 17th Bitcoin Price Movement Observation: Support Holds, but Rebound Lacks Momentum

【Fundamental Logic Summary】

First, look at the big picture—the daily chart shows Bitcoin still oscillating within the downtrend channel established after the October peak. All moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the candlesticks remain below EMA7/EMA30/EMA120, with the weekly decline unchanged. This indicates the overall trend still leans bearish. However, recently, the 4-hour chart has shown consecutive long lower shadows, and the RSI has moved out of the oversold zone, suggesting a short-term correction may be needed.

Where is the core tug-of-war between bulls and bears? The area around 85,500-86,000 is a key support formed by Fibonacci retracement combined with previous lows, creating a resonance zone. Bulls have defended this level three times, preventing bears from breaking below, indicating some support from buyers. Resistance is more evident— the 90,000 psychological level and the previous consolidation at 90,500 form a double barrier, coupled with a downward trendline. Any rebound tends to lack strength and struggles to break through.

How about the external environment? The Federal Reserve has paused balance sheet reduction, providing liquidity support to the market; however, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in December, causing some turbulence in the bond market, which may dampen risk appetite. From the stock market linkage perspective, US crypto-related stocks (such as Hut8, which recently rose nearly 4%) are correlated with Bitcoin’s movement, offering some capital buffer.

Technical details— the daily RSI shows a bullish divergence, with the price making new lows but RSI lows rising, indicating diminishing downside momentum; the 4-hour MACD histogram is contracting, still below zero axis, signaling a bearish bias but with signs of recovery; the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening, awaiting a clear direction.

【Market Characterization】

This is not a reversal but a weak rebound within a downtrend correction. The characteristics are clear: support levels are being defended, but the rebound lacks strength. The entire 86,000-90,000 range is a battleground between bulls and bears, but without sufficient volume, it’s hard to break the strong resistance above. The most probable scenario remains a consolidation correction, with further downside pressure after any upward move.

【Trading Suggestions】

For long positions (buying the dip with controlled risk)
- Entry points: 86,000-86,500 (key support zone)
- Target: first look at 87,800-88,000

For short positions (main trend)
- Entry points: 89,500-90,000 (strong resistance zone)
- Target: first look at 87,500-87,000

Key reminder: Rebounds lacking volume are easily exploited by bears for entry, so risk management is crucial.