2025-12-16 05:22:12

Key dates are set—what will the December 19th meeting of the Bank of Japan rewrite?

This time, it's not just a simple rate hike. The market widely expects the BOJ to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, pushing the rate to 0.75%. What does this figure mean? The highest level since 1995. In other words, a landmark interest rate of an era is about to become a thing of the past.

But that's just the surface. The real impact lies in two layers:

First, the rate increase itself is a signal. The decades-long ultra-cheap yen ecosystem is collapsing. Remember? Not long ago, the BOJ announced a long-term plan—gradually selling off its massive ETF holdings. Total scale: 83 trillion yen, which is about $534 billion USD. The selling pace appears slow, at just over 330 billion yen per year, expected to take a century. But behind this "turtle speed," it actually signals a role reversal: Japan is no longer an infinite defender of the stock market.

Combined, these two events send a firm signal—the decades of cheap liquidity flowing from Japan to global markets are systematically being withdrawn. The foundation of yen arbitrage is shaking. The entire global asset pricing logic needs to be re-evaluated.

Last year, during Japan’s policy turning point, global stock markets experienced a "Black Monday." Many still remember the shockwaves from that period. This time? It’s another critical point where quantitative changes have accumulated into a qualitative explosion.

The question now is: will the US stock market be the first to feel the pressure? How will the crypto ecosystem react? Will funds in emerging markets turn around? Will mainstream cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH experience a new adjustment cycle?

What’s your view? Is this the beginning of a new market storm, or a mild shift already digested in advance? From an asset allocation perspective, what preparations should be made now?

BTC-4,98%

ETH-8,96%

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RugpullSurvivor

· 2025-12-16 09:20

The Bank of Japan is up to something again, and this time it's really different. 83 trillion yen will be withdrawn, and the hundred-year plan is actually just a signal flare. Decades of arbitrage profits are coming to an end. If this actually happens, BTC will probably have to follow suit, and the US stock market won't be able to stay out of it either. I just want to know if anyone has actively reduced their positions before December 19th.

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GateUser-75ee51e7

· 2025-12-16 06:22

The Bank of Japan is really about to take serious action; does it feel like this arbitrage opportunity is about to blow up?

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ser_aped.eth

· 2025-12-16 05:49

Once again, the Bank of Japan is causing trouble. This time, it's truly different... Doubling interest rates, selling off ETFs, cheap liquidity is disappearing, and the dream of arbitrage trading is coming to an end. --- Honestly, last year's "Black Monday" is still vivid in my mind. This time, the Japanese are really going all out. Once the yen appreciation cycle starts, carry trade folks will be crying their eyes out. --- 83 trillion yen sold over a hundred years? It sounds slow, but this is a declaration—Japan will no longer support the market. Those who profit from cheap yen dividends, like US stocks and BTC, will have to pay back sooner or later. --- The most heartbreaking thing now is that no one really knows what will happen after December 19. Will they absorb the impact in advance or just dump the market? The probability is about 50-50... --- It doesn't matter whether you rebalance your assets or not; the key is to hedge against the risk of yen appreciation. Otherwise, it will be too late once the wave hits.

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BoredApeResistance

· 2025-12-16 05:33

The Bank of Japan is really going to get serious this time, selling 83 trillion yen... This arbitrage game is truly unplayable now. --- It feels like another major reshuffle is coming; we haven't even recovered from Black Friday last time. --- The question is, can BTC withstand this wave? It seems that since the cheap money flow from Japan has stopped, the entire market logic has changed. --- Slowly selling for a century? Sounds gentle but is actually the harshest; this is gradually lowering the water level. --- Wait, will the real shock come from the US stock market crashing first or will crypto react beforehand? Does anyone bet on ETH falling? --- Is the yen arbitrage era really coming to an end? Are there still people playing this game now? --- This time, it's not just about rate hikes; it feels like a major repositioning of the entire global financial structure. What should we retail investors do?

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WalletDivorcer

· 2025-12-16 05:29

The Bank of Japan's recent actions seem to be gradually withdrawing the "printing money benefits" accumulated over decades. Arbitrage players should wake up. --- Honestly, this is much more aggressive than simply raising interest rates, effectively announcing the end of the big market support era. Liquidity is really going to shrink. --- Wait, is the selling speed dragging for a hundred years? It sounds like it’s not very powerful, but in reality, it’s a declaration of attitude change. The psychological impact is greater. --- Is it another case of "being digested in advance" or "triggering a spark"? I bet BTC will be the first to react. --- I remember last year's Black Week. If it happens again this time, the crypto market might have to reshuffle. --- The foundation of yen arbitrage has been shaken, and a shift in funds is inevitable. Emerging markets are probably going to take a few hits. --- At this moment on December 19th, the logic of global asset pricing will be rewritten. Those still watching are just betting on time.

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