#美联储降息 Super marathon events have an interesting phenomenon: the winner is usually the runner who "brakes the least."

It sounds simple, but the underlying logic is worth pondering.

From a physical perspective, sudden braking and restarting is like a car— the energy loss in that moment is huge. From another angle, this is called volatility drag in mathematics—a major drawdown can destroy long-term compound returns. In competitive scenarios, maintaining a steady pace can put significant pressure on opponents.

Therefore, maintaining system continuity is often more powerful than pursuing a momentary "burst."

**A classic example of this theory is the "20-Mile Rule"**

Antarctic explorer Amundsen insisted on traveling 20 miles every day—whether the weather was clear or in a blizzard. No greed, no slack. Ultimately, he won the life-and-death race against Scott. This methodology has been widely adopted by later entrepreneurs and fitness enthusiasts.

**But Nobel laureate in Economics, Richard Thaler, discovered something interesting.**

He studied the work patterns of New York taxi drivers and found many follow a "fixed daily income strategy": busy on rainy days, but they stop working once they reach their preset goal; conversely, they work hard when business is slow.

Thaler's conclusion directly exposes this logic: it’s completely wrong!

The rational approach is exactly the opposite—on rainy days, demand for taxis surges, prices are good, and there are many rides, so you should work like crazy; during slow days, staying an extra hour won’t make much difference, so better to go home early.

**How to reconcile these two theories?**

The answer lies in the nature of the environment.

Amundsen faced a linear endurance race, emphasizing continuous effort—this logic applies to fitness, reading, long-term entrepreneurship, and other "accumulation-based" activities.

Thaler’s observed taxi business, in essence, is a nonlinear world with highly uneven opportunity distribution. The winning strategy here changes: save energy during slow times, go all out during peak times.

**This is best illustrated in the investment world.**

Warren Buffett has repeatedly emphasized: "When you have nothing to do, it’s best to do nothing." This is about avoiding blind trading when market opportunities are scarce, which only increases risk.

George Soros, on the other hand, takes the opposite extreme: he believes that when a truly good opportunity appears, you should decisively leverage your position. These two styles seem contradictory but actually reflect the same philosophy—adapting to the environment and doing the right thing at the right time with the right intensity.

For $BTC and other asset investors, this logic is also crucial. Market opportunities are never evenly distributed; sometimes it’s an extreme bear market, other times a booming bull market. Those obsessed with "continuous trading" or "trading every day" often lose to those who "know when to act and when to stay silent."

Therefore, the true top-tier investment mindset isn’t about complex formulas but these two words: **Timing and Scale**. Timing is about capturing the rhythm of opportunity; scale is about applying the right strength at the right stage.