Bitcoin cycle exit from Grayscale: "The 4-year bear scenario may not work this time"

Source: BTCHaber Original Title: Grayscale’den Bitcoin döngüsü çıkışı: “4 yıllık ayı senaryosu bu kez çalışmayabilir” Original Link: The recent pullback in Bitcoin has raised the question, “Is a new bear season beginning?” In response, Grayscale Research published a new analysis opposing this scenario. The company argues that the traditional “halving-driven peak–crash” four-year cycle theory is now insufficient to explain the market structure.

According to Grayscale, the current declines resemble natural corrections seen in previous bull runs and do not indicate a prolonged bear market.

Two main reasons behind the “cycle is ending” theory

The key arguments highlighted in Grayscale’s report are as follows:

1. No parabolic rally or retail FOMO

   In previous cycles, it was observed that prices parabolically inflated before the peak, with retail investors heavily entering the market. Grayscale states that such “blow-off” has not occurred in this cycle, making it premature to talk about a classic cycle peak.

2. Market drivers now are institutions and ETFs

   The report notes that the market structure has changed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional purchases are creating a different balance in valuation compared to past cycles. This weakens the “3 years up + 1 year big crash” pattern.

2026 outlook: “New all-time highs possible”

Grayscale Research suggests that due to the weakening of the cycle theory, Bitcoin could potentially reach new all-time highs in 2026. The company believes that the current pullbacks may be just corrections within a bull market.

What does the macro environment say? Emphasis on Fed and regulation

The report highlights two main factors as we approach 2026:

• Possible Fed rate cuts leading to easing liquidity conditions in favor of crypto
• The potential for bipartisan support for regulation in the US, creating a clearer market foundation

Grayscale thinks these two factors could create a positive macro framework for Bitcoin.

What does this mean?

Grayscale’s message is clear: Bitcoin’s supply still progresses in a four-year rhythm driven by halvings, but the price cycle does not have to follow the same pattern. As institutional capital and ETF influence grow, market behavior may diverge from historical patterns.

Therefore, Grayscale considers the “long-lasting bear season has begun” narratives to be premature and interprets the current decline as a correction within a bull trend rather than a cycle end.