#数字资产生态回暖 December 14 Midday Market Briefing

BTC repeatedly tests the $90,000 level—24-hour price change is only 868 points (90634/89766), with a trading volume of 540 million USDT indicating cautious sentiment in the market. Both bulls and bears have reached a fragile balance at this price level.

Although it appears to be a long-term sideways consolidation, the underlying logic is quite clear: the market is using time to absorb the selling pressure from previous declines. While there are occasional sell orders testing lower support levels, each time they are quickly pulled back, indicating that the support zone around 88500-89000 is genuinely strong. An interesting technical divergence has emerged—MACD forming a golden cross below the zero line, with the histogram shifting from negative to positive—which usually suggests that downward momentum is waning; however, the EMA moving averages remain in a bearish arrangement, and the short-term trend has not truly reversed. This contradiction precisely reflects the current oscillation: bulls are accumulating strength, and bears have not completely given up.

Fundamentally, there are mixed signals. The positive is that institutions have not stopped building positions—large banks in Brazil are suggesting allocation strategies, and US spot ETFs continue to attract funds—these actions form a price bottom support. The negative factors come from macro-level concerns: expectations of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, rising global uncertainties, leading to risk assets cooling down. This is the core reason for the cautious sideways movement of BTC.

**Short-term Strategy Reference:**
Look for buying opportunities near the support zone of 88500-89000, with resistance at 90500-91000, which can serve as reference points for partial profit-taking. Do not be soft on stop-losses; if the price drops below $88,000, decisively exit. The risk of a breakdown tends to be faster than the gains from a rebound.

**Risk Reminder:**
The longer the consolidation lasts, the more vigorous the subsequent breakout can be once the direction is confirmed. Therefore, prepare for both scenarios—plan to add positions on an upward breakout, and have strict stop-loss rules for a downward breakdown. Never let a single-direction judgment blind your judgment; this is the easiest way to get caught in a trap.