#美联储降息 $TNSR $ZEC $BTC

The Federal Reserve's 2026 policy undercurrents are brewing, with $2 billion in clearing pressure looming.

The suspense over the rate hike cycle is finally about to be revealed. Currently, all eyes in the market are on the Fed’s policy framework for next year, especially how much longer Powell, the chair, will remain in office.

The most tumultuous aspect is the disagreement among FOMC members. Some insist on continuing rate cuts in the first half of 2026, while others believe a pause is needed in Q1. There’s also a hawkish camp outright stating, "Don’t expect rate cuts in the long term." The polarization among institutional forecasts significantly heightens the risk of market re-pricing.

The key issue here is: Powell's term expires in mid-2026, turning long-term policy forecasts into a guessing game. Plus, internal dissent within the Fed is likely to grow next year. When that happens, the dot plot and Powell’s speeches could have a market-moving impact greater than actual rate adjustments.

Inflation data and employment conditions are still quite resilient, so don’t expect radical rate cuts. Powell will definitely use these two data points as benchmarks. If inflation doesn’t cool down and employment remains strong, the idea of large-scale rate cuts is basically unlikely.

But that’s not even the most intense part. The BTC price is above two major short liquidation zones, totaling a nominal exposure of $2 billion. Once Bitcoin surges into this price range, a large number of leveraged short positions will be forced to close, amplifying volatility. Breaking through the first dense liquidation zone could inertia push price toward the second zone. If a massive liquidation cluster is shattered, a sharp short squeeze could trigger a rally, often overshooting psychological thresholds before pulling back again. How high it can spike depends on real-time liquidity, spot ETF capital flows, and the willingness of large sellers.

The question now is: Will the Fed’s policy signals trigger a Bitcoin pullback, or will this liquidation pressure be used for a violent surge? What are your thoughts?