The financing plan reversal of the #美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Fogo project has sparked heated discussions in the market. The project announced three days ago that it would conduct a token pre-sale on December 17, but now suddenly announced the cancellation of the $20 million financing arrangement, with an official explanation of "optimizing the token distribution mechanism." However, the rapid adjustment in financing progress reflects more on the reality of insufficient pre-sale enthusiasm.

Data shows that the project is selling 2% of its token rights at a $1 billion valuation, a pricing logic that warrants careful scrutiny. Compared to financing valuations of similar projects in the industry, this number indeed carries the risk of overestimation.

There are obvious risks in the tokenomics design. When the mainnet launches, nearly 40% of the tokens are planned to be unlocked directly, with 6.6% of tokens immediately entering the market in a tradable state. This high initial release ratio has historically been a significant source of price pressure for projects. More concerning is that the project team is destroying core contributor tokens ( about 2%) to show sincerity, while shifting the circulation pressure onto community airdrop recipients. Under this structure, the token price faces multiple selling pressures.

From the timeline of progress, the decision to shift from pre-sale to airdrop within three days reveals hasty internal planning. Why was the originally planned $20 million USDC financing suddenly abandoned? This typically reflects institutional investors' reservations about the project's valuation or development prospects.

Historical data indicate that high initial unlock ratios combined with community airdrops pose risks. On the day of mainnet launch, nearly 39% of tokens are unlocked and flood into the market simultaneously, and airdrop participants often have high immediate cash-out willingness. Coupled with the common practice of project foundations selling some tokens at high points, liquidity pools are easily under early pressure.

Market observations: similar projects with airdrops and high unlock ratios have seen their prices halved within three months. Fogo has not yet fully open-sourced its code, and the technical promises of SVM Layer1 still require practical verification after the mainnet launch. Investors need to be fully aware of the early risks involved in such projects.

When the project team suddenly shifts to a "community feedback" strategy, it is often the stage of greatest market pressure. Participants should carefully assess their own risk tolerance.

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