#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve officials are in a tangled mess, but the market is brewing opportunities

Recently, I reviewed the speeches of several Federal Reserve policymakers, each holding different views. Goolsbee is still taking a wait-and-see approach, Harker thinks the policy is too loose, and Powell has started to focus on soft employment data. It sounds like a quarrel, but there are clues behind it.

Don't be fooled by the noise of public opinion; understanding the "funding environment" is the key

The disagreements among these officials ultimately revolve around two topics: whether inflation is truly under control and whether employment data can withstand the pressure. But for market participants, these are just side dishes—the main course is whether market liquidity will increase.

The answer is yes. Three rounds of rate cuts have already shown a shift in attitude. More importantly, the Fed has long stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is now injecting $40 billion monthly into Treasury purchases. This is not a mild signal; it’s outright money printing. Funds are starting to flow into the market, and the flow will only grow larger.

Opportunities for differentiation in the crypto ecosystem

Ample liquidity favors Bitcoin, and no one disputes that. But the real big gains might be in altcoins. In a market with abundant funds, hot money loves to chase projects with small market caps and rich narratives. The profit potential is indeed greater, but so are the risks—once the market tightens its belt, these coins tend to fall the fastest and hardest.

Recent operations: prioritize stability, avoid reckless moves

During this year-end window, whether the Fed turns hawkish or dovish next is not important; what matters is that the market is currently mainly oscillating. Don’t bet on every shift, and don’t easily leverage. Observe more, act less, and if you’re itching to trade, use a small amount of capital that you can afford to lose to test the waters.

Medium to long-term strategy: wait for data reversal

The overall direction is clear—the shift from tightening to easing liquidity is a done deal. At this stage, what’s needed is not a big gamble but patience. The key is to watch the economic data in the first half of next year. Once there are clear signs of weakening data, market expectations for further rate cuts will heat up rapidly—that will be the moment for a new upward trend to start.

The Fed is making decisions, and the market is waiting for a turning point. Finding where the most money flows is the winning strategy. Which direction do you think the first batch of easing funds will flow into?