The Fed's actions this time, with rate cuts being only superficial, the real point of interest is the seemingly insignificant tool called RMP (Reserve Management Purchases). Many people view it as QE 2.0, but fundamentally, they are entirely different.

In simple terms, QE is a powerful medicine during an economic collapse—massively expanding the balance sheet, buying large quantities of long-term government bonds and mortgage-backed securities, directly flooding the market with money to stimulate the economy. RMP? It's more like a precise liquidity regulation valve, mainly operating on short-term Treasury bills (now even extending to bonds within 3 years), and it can be conducted simultaneously with balance sheet reduction. Authorities have emphasized that this is just a technical operation, but the market has already voted with its feet—funds are moving according to the "shadow easing" logic.

Regarding the impact of this wave of operations on the crypto market, I believe it should be viewed in two stages:

In the short term, the Christmas rally is likely to continue. The monthly liquidity injection of $40 billion has already been in place, and on December 11th, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surged by 4.2% in a single day, with Ethereum rising nearly 8%. This signal is very clear. As the dollar weakens and risk appetite rebounds, funds will naturally flow into high-volatility assets.

But in the longer term, 2026 could be a critical turning point. The dot plot indicates that next year’s rate cuts might only total 25 basis points, with increasing internal disagreement. More importantly, the scale of tools like RMP can be shrunk at any time. Once the Fed starts "easing while tightening," the reversal of liquidity expectations could happen faster than expected. This is the lurking gray rhino.

To sum up: right now, it's indeed a liquidity-driven window period, but don't mistake short-term exuberance for a long-term trend. When the Fed shifts policy in 2026, will this round of "precise easing" evolve into an uncontrollable flood? That’s a question worth ongoing monitoring.