The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected last night, but Ethereum's performance was surprising—rallying briefly before quickly retreating to around $3,250.

This rate cut carries some odd signals. Although Powell announced a rate cut, the dot plot indicates only one cut next year. This "rate cut with hawkish undertones" combination directly dampened market sentiment. ETH just reached a resistance level and then weakened, with technicals becoming more subtle.

Currently, there is a key level to watch closely: $3,220. This is a watershed—holding above gives some breathing room, while breaking below could see support levels at $2,960 or even $2,620 come into play. The market is now stuck at this critical point, with bulls and bears contending.

Interestingly, on-chain activity shows a wallet known as "BTC OG Insider Whale" has been very active lately. This entity accurately shorted Bitcoin at the end of September and earned nearly $100 million. Now, it has added 40,000 ETH long positions, with total holdings approaching $400 million. Its liquidation price is set at $2,234. Although still far from current prices, such a sizable position is a market indicator. Large funds daring to bet this way may have seen something or are prepared to endure significant volatility.

From the current situation, Ethereum is temporarily under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance, and technically, it’s approaching the high-pressure zone at $3,350. Breaking upward isn’t easy. If today’s price truly breaks below $3,220, I’d lean towards first targeting $2,960. Until then, small long positions can be cautiously tested, but stop-loss levels must be well set—don’t rely on luck.

What should you do now? Don’t rush blindly just because you see "rate cut" words. The market is playing out a scenario of "good news landing + hawkish expectations." Ethereum needs time to digest these signals.

For those with heavy positions, consider reducing some near $3,220; don’t hesitate if it breaks. For lighter positions, wait for a confirmed breakdown to add gradually, or wait until it re-establishes above $3,280 before considering short-term trades. Market moves are unpredictable; timing is everything. Volatility hides opportunities but also traps.