Treating crypto as a side hustle to make money, I’ve recently come to understand one thing: the more you watch and learn, the more years of tuition you can save yourself. Today, let’s talk about a method I often use—how to tell if a coin is making a real breakout or just faking it.

Let’s start with trading volume. If the big players want to pump the price, they’ll have to accumulate first, right? So when you see a coin moving sideways for a long time and suddenly there’s a surge in volume, pay close attention. But don’t rush in yet—this is often just a test. Wait until they finish shaking out weak hands and there’s a second burst in volume and price—that’s the real entry opportunity.

How do I look at price? I only care about the closing price. No matter how much the price jumps around during the session, it’s just noise. If the closing price can firmly stand above the resistance level, that’s when things get interesting. This trick works over and over again—if the closing price holds, the chance of a real breakout shoots up.

The time frame is also crucial. If a coin has been consolidating with low volume for more than three months and the chip concentration drops below 10%, it means the main players have basically finished accumulating. Once these coins start moving, the breakout is usually explosive because all the weak hands have already been shaken out.

Finally, you need to judge the price space. You have to identify where the resistance is—it could be the starting point of a previous heavy volume sell-off, the neckline of a W-bottom or head-and-shoulders bottom, or even a round number. Once you’ve pinpointed the resistance, you’ll have a good idea of how much room there is for a move after the breakout.

These four angles—volume, price, time, and space—are my basics for judging sideways breakouts. Of course, nothing is 100% in the market, but at least this can significantly boost your win rate. If you watch BTC, XRP, SOL, and other major coins with this method, you’ll often catch quite a few good opportunities.