#Gateio文章亮点

On June 2nd, the Ethereum market was like a sudden spring thunder, pushing the ETH price from a low of $2475 to above $2600. This iconic long lower shadow bullish candle not only signals a technical breakthrough but also reflects the drastic fluctuations in market sentiment. However, after the price consolidated at a high for three days, traders began to face a critical question: is this the prelude to a new bull market, or the last flicker of the bulls' dying efforts?
1. K-line Patterns: The Stage for Bull and Bear Confrontation
From the daily chart, ETH's trend seems to be depicting a dramatic reversal. The surge on June 2nd was like a sword unsheathed, piercing through the psychological barrier of $2600, but the subsequent consolidation has left this sword suspended in mid-air. The 4-hour chart at this moment is even more intriguing—two consecutive bullish candles with higher highs form a subtle ascending channel. If it can hold above $2600 (upper Bollinger Band), the channel will be fully opened; if it falls below $2560 (EMA7 support level), it may trigger technical selling pressure, pulling the price back to the round number of $2500.

In this long and short game, trading volume is the most sensitive weather vane. The huge volume of transactions on June 2 was like a big gamble, and the next day's drawdown suggested that the chips were loose. On-chain data shows that the exchange's net outflow has accumulated 170,000 ETH for three consecutive days, and seemingly determined holders may be laying the groundwork for the Pectra upgrade (mainnet launch at the end of July).
2. Technical Indicators: The Metaphor Behind the Digital
The MACD indicator's golden cross on the 4-hour chart resembles an arrow about to be released, yet the tip of the arrow still hovers below the zero axis—this indicates insufficient rebound momentum, and the bulls still need to gather strength. The narrowing of the MACD histogram at the daily level is like a brief ceasefire between two armies, waiting for one side to launch a full-scale attack first.

The RSI indicator is more intriguing: the 4-hour chart is trading at 60.6, approaching the overbought threshold (70), as if the bulls are on the edge of a cliff, while the neutral zone on the daily chart suggests that the battle is not yet to be decided. If ETH can build a double line of defense at $2,525 (EMA30) and $2,500 (round number), it may be able to buy more time for the bulls.

The moving average system shows the stubbornness of the bulls - the price is running above EMA7 and EMA30, and the short-term moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. If the EMA30 (2525) crosses above the EMA120 (long-term moving average), the golden cross will completely ignite the market's enthusiasm. However, if the price breaks below EMA7 (2562), it could trigger a chain reaction that will break down the support level layer by layer.

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3. Trading Strategy: Dancing on the Edge of a Knife**
For short-term traders, the EMA7 support level at $2560 and the EMA30 support level at $2525 are two entry opportunities that cannot be overlooked. The former is like a sentry post set at the city gate; a breakthrough means the bulls have successfully breached the city. The latter serves as a stronghold during a retreat; if it holds firm, a counterattack may be launched.

Short sellers need to keep an eye on the pressure levels of $2,650 and $2,700. $2,650 is the psychological threshold for the recent high, and $2,700 is the impregnable wall of historical resistance. If the price falls back at $2,700 and the stop loss is set at $2,725, it may be able to capture the bears' carnival.

But it's important to remember that the market is always uncertain. The boots of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 12 have not yet landed, and the wind and grass of the dollar index may trigger a violent shock in ETH. In addition, the U.S. ETH ETF has had a net inflow of $486 million for 9 consecutive days, and the increase in institutional funds may be brewing a bigger storm.
IV. Conclusion: Seeking Certainty in Uncertainty**
When technical and fundamental factors intertwine into a complex web, traders must maintain a clear mind. In the short term, ETH is likely to continue oscillating in the range of $2500 to $2700; in the medium term, expectations for the Pectra upgrade may provide new narrative logic for the price. However, risk management is always the first rule of survival - whether it’s strict stop-losses for short-term trading or position management for medium-term trading, both are key to standing firm in this blood-soaked market.