Why is Bitcoin up today? Trump pauses strikes on Iranian energy facilities, and the Fed signals support for risk markets

Bitcoin recovers part of its losses on March 31, rising back above $67,000. The main driver behind this bounce is diplomatic signaling on the geopolitical front: White House press secretary Leavitt said Trump wants to reach an agreement with Iran before the April 6 deadline, boosting the market’s short-term expectations that U.S.-Iran tensions will ease. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said he is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged, a stance that also provided short-term support for risk assets.

The core reasons Bitcoin is up today: the diplomatic window opens

The Trump administration announced that, at the request of the Iranian government, it has paused strikes on Iran’s energy facilities for 10 days, ending at 8:00 PM Eastern Time on April 6, when operations will resume. The White House said clearly that the president hopes to reach an agreement before the deadline—this is the most diplomatically significant public statement between the U.S. and Iran since “Operation Epic Fury” began 31 days ago.

With expectations of de-escalation briefly lifting market sentiment, Bitcoin bounced from its monthly low, a rally analysts described as being driven by “cautious optimism.” However, on the same day, Baghae (Baghae), a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, denied that direct talks had begun between the two sides, pointing out that the U.S. is conveying negotiation proposals through third-party intermediaries such as Pakistan. Iran’s ceasefire position has not changed, reminding the market not to read too much into the diplomatic signals.

The Hormuz Toll Bill: the added supply risk can’t be ignored

On the same day, Iran’s parliament passed a bill that plans to charge tolls for commercial vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, with fees for each oil tanker potentially reaching as high as $2 million, and to ban vessels related to countries that have imposed unilateral sanctions on Iran, including the United States and Israel, from passing. The tolls would be paid in Iranian rials. The White House immediately stated that it does not support it.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global oil trade. If the related restrictions are implemented, it will further push up oil prices, strengthen inflation pressure, and squeeze the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates—creating a new round of structural burden for risk assets.

Federal Reserve stance and three scenarios for what comes next

（Source: Trading View）

On Monday, Powell said that before the impact of Iran’s energy disruption becomes clearer, the Fed is inclined to take a “through-the-looking-glass” observation approach to rising oil prices and keep interest rates unchanged; but at the same time, he warned that if inflation expectations drift higher for the long term, the Fed may have to take action. “The Fed’s megaphone” Nick Timiraos noted that the rate-cut threshold has risen noticeably compared with several months ago, shrinking the market’s imagination of easing policy.

Technicals-wise, $65,000 is the key bottom line for bulls, while around $73,000 is the main resistance level. Analysts laid out three scenario frameworks for the future:

Bullish scenario: U.S.-Iran de-escalation is confirmed, the dollar weakens, and macro risk appetite rebounds—Bitcoin returns to $75,000 and moves toward the $80,000 psychological level

Base scenario: The market waits for diplomatic progress and macro data validation, and Bitcoin trades sideways and consolidates between $67,000 and $73,000

Bearish scenario: A break below the $65,000 support level (especially if macro shock conditions reappear) would open the downside channel toward $58,000 to $60,000

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Bitcoin up today, and what is the main catalyst?

The core catalyst behind today’s rise is U.S.-Iran diplomatic signaling. The White House said Trump hopes to reach an agreement before the April 6 deadline, boosting the market’s short-term expectations that geopolitical tensions will ease, which in turn temporarily lifts risk-asset sentiment. Powell’s remarks leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged also provided additional support for this rebound.

How important is the April 6 deadline to Bitcoin’s price action?

April 6 is the expiration date of the Trump administration’s pause on strikes against Iran’s energy facilities. If any diplomatic framework agreement is reached before this date, it could trigger a sharp fall in oil prices, rapidly lift market risk appetite, and drive Bitcoin to test resistance levels around $73,000 to $75,000. If talks break down and military actions resume, then the $65,000 support level will face an immediate test.

What potential impact does Iran’s Hormuz toll bill have on Bitcoin?

If the bill is implemented, global oil supply chains would face another round of disruption—pushing up oil prices and strengthening inflation pressure, which would further narrow the Fed’s rate-cut room. A high-rate environment structurally weighs on risk assets such as Bitcoin, potentially offsetting the short-term positive effects brought by diplomatic easing. This is the uncertainty source the market most needs to watch right now.