AAVE loses a pivotal support level: What scenario for the $92 threshold?

Aave has lost the important support threshold of $100 amid a weakening overall market, causing the price to plummet to a three-week low of $96. At the time of writing, AAVE is trading around $97, down 7.7% on the day, with the market capitalization also “evaporating” by more than $200 million.

Notably, this altcoin has slipped below the short-term moving averages (MA 9 and MA 21), indicating a marked increase in selling pressure and a prevailing downward trend.

AAVE drops below $100

In the context of the crypto market correction, AAVE investor sentiment quickly turned pessimistic, leading to a strong wave of position exits, further reinforcing the downward momentum. The Bulls vs. Bears indicator has also flipped to negative after maintaining a positive state for over a month, reflecting that the bears are completely dominating the bulls.

Source: TradingViewActivity on exchanges continues to reinforce the current trend. According to data from CryptoQuant, approximately 79,000 AAVE have been deposited onto exchanges, surpassing the 74,000 tokens withdrawn, causing the Netflow to remain positive for the sixth consecutive day — a signal indicating that selling pressure is prevailing.

Source: CryptoQuantThis trend pushes the Exchange Supply Ratio to its highest level of the month, reaching 0.137 at the time of writing. As the amount of tokens available for trading increases, scarcity declines, thereby increasing downward pressure.

This structure on exchanges is often a precursor to the potential expansion of the downtrend, pulling prices down to lower ranges.

Source: CryptoQuant## What do the momentum indicators show?

In terms of momentum, AAVE is under significant downward pressure after losing the important support area, with the bears fully in control. The RSI has plummeted to 34, approaching the oversold region — indicating weakening demand while sellers continue to dominate the market. In this context, the downward trend tends to be further reinforced.

Source: TradingViewIf selling pressure continues and the market lacks support, AAVE could retreat to the $92 level before a technical rebound occurs. Conversely, if buying demand returns and the price reclaims the $100 mark, the market could establish a foundation for a recovery.

However, to confirm a trend reversal, the bulls need not only to reclaim the $100 level but also to surpass the 9-day and 21-day moving averages at $107 and $110, respectively. If this scenario does not occur, AAVE is likely to enter a prolonged weakening phase and remain below the $100 threshold.