U.S. Congress members ban staff from trading on Polymarket and Kalshi; the PREDICT bill proposes simultaneous restrictions on government officials.

U.S. Democratic Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts announced a comprehensive ban starting March 25th on all office staff—including district, legislative, public relations, and administrative personnel—from trading or holding positions related to politics, legislation, regulation, or geopolitics on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The ban also prohibits using any non-public information obtained through official duties to trade.

“Playground for Corrupt Insiders”

Moulton stated, “Prediction markets have become a playground for corrupt insiders who can bet on election outcomes, wars, and even the deaths of public figures. This creates a distorted incentive structure that poses a real threat to American society today.”

The move comes amid recent reports of anonymous traders profiting heavily from politically sensitive events. There is widespread suspicion that government insiders are exploiting non-public information for arbitrage—such as a large-scale short position on crude oil made by traders fourteen minutes before President Trump announced a pause in Iran negotiations, earning $60 million, and controversial bets related to the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro.

PREDICT Act: Extending Restrictions to Presidents, Vice Presidents, and Political Appointees

On the same day, bipartisan Representatives Adrian Smith ® and Nikki Budzinski (D) jointly introduced the PREDICT Act (Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act), which broadens the scope:

• Members of Congress, their spouses, and minor children

• The President and Vice President

• Political appointees and other senior officials

Violators could face civil fines of 10% of the trading amount and be required to turn over all profits to the U.S. Treasury.

Legislative Wave: Multiple Proposals in One Week

This is part of a recent surge in legislative activity. Last week, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis proposed banning contracts related to sports betting on platforms regulated by the CFTC; on Tuesday, Senators Chris Murphy and Greg Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act, targeting markets related to terrorism, assassination, and war.

In response to legislative pressure, Polymarket and Kalshi have proactively strengthened their anti-insider trading mechanisms, including stricter policies and upgraded monitoring capabilities. Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker noted that more congressional offices are likely to follow suit with similar bans, but he also admitted, “Achieving 100% elimination of insider trading may be an impossible ideal.”

This article about U.S. Congress members banning staff from trading on Polymarket and Kalshi, and the PREDICT Act proposing government officials’ restrictions, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.