Bitcoin Consolidating, Is It Time to Enter? K33: Selling Pressure Easing, Bottom Signals Emerging

Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $60,000 and $75,000 for several weeks. For many investors, this “stuck in the middle” consolidation is the most difficult to endure. However, research firm K33 suggests that what seems like boring sideways movement may actually be brewing for a structural shift: as selling pressure diminishes, a bottoming signal appears to have emerged.

Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, states in a recent report that Bitcoin has recently been trading sideways within the $60,000 to $75,000 range, with ETF capital flows and long-term holder behavior stabilizing. He notes that this price action “often accompanies market bottoms,” and for medium- to long-term investors, Bitcoin at just over $70,000 may present an attractive entry opportunity.

Is the selling wave coming to an end?
Lunde observes that since late February this year, the capital flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has shifted to a mild net inflow. This indicates that since Bitcoin hit its all-time high last October, the market has experienced a long “distribution phase,” where large holders continue to sell to retail investors. Now, this phase may be coming to an end.

Why did the previous wave of capital withdrawal occur? Lunde explains that investors rushed to take profits or cut losses when prices fell below their cost basis, creating a vicious cycle of “selling more as prices fall, and prices falling further as they sell.” As prices decline now, the incentive to sell diminishes, and buying demand begins to pick up.

Long-term holder positions stabilizing
The same effect is also happening among long-term holders. According to K33 data, after a major shift in holdings around the end of 2025, the supply of Bitcoin held for over six months is once again on the rise.

Lunde points out that Bitcoin is still well below the psychological $100,000 mark, encouraging many long-term investors to continue holding rather than rushing to exit. This “scarcity mentality” also provides strong support for Bitcoin within the current price range.

Changes in Bitcoin supply over the past 30 days (holders over 6 months). Data source: K33

Macroeconomic headwinds persist, but market structure is quietly strengthening
Despite signs of improvement in market structure, the overall environment remains uncertain. Tensions in the Middle East are rising, coupled with soaring international oil prices, increasing volatility in global financial markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to signal a hawkish stance, dampening expectations of rate cuts in the near term. The report notes these factors are suppressing risk appetite and limiting hot money inflows into crypto.

From trading data, market sentiment remains cautious. Lunde notes that open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts is near its yearly low, and funding rates are persistently negative, indicating weak demand for long positions.

Additionally, institutional investors mostly remain on the sidelines. CME Bitcoin futures open interest has stagnated, and confidence in expanding forward contracts is limited.

Bottoming out, but a rebound is still lacking
Despite short-term macro turbulence, Lunde remains highly optimistic about the market’s “constructive” outlook. He states that when “selling pressure wanes,” “ETF capital flows stabilize,” and “price consolidates,” these three phenomena strongly suggest Bitcoin is gradually leaving behind the previous wave of distribution and entering a bottoming phase.

However, he admits that until overall economic uncertainty eases, Bitcoin’s upside will remain constrained in the short term. For investors, now may not be the time to bet on a “V-shaped reversal,” but the early signs of a bottom are quietly emerging.

The bear market is nearing its end! K33 research: Bitcoin will enter a “long period of consolidation” with limited short-term momentum.