VanEck: Bitcoin Miners "Sell Immediately After Mining," Put Option Signals Reach New Highs

VanEck Digital Asset Research Director Matthew Sigel released a monthly on-chain data report on March 20, indicating that the 30-day average price of Bitcoin has fallen 19%. However, as realized volatility has decreased from 80 to 50 and futures financing rates from 4.1% to 2.7%, spot prices have stabilized. The report reveals that the put-to-call open interest ratio in the Bitcoin options market has an average of 0.77.

Survival Pressure on Bitcoin Miners: Immediate Sell-Off with 684,000 Coins Held

The current behavior of Bitcoin miners is one of the most notable supply-side signals in this report. The total Bitcoin holdings (excluding Satoshi wallets) held by miners are approximately 684,000 coins, down only 0.5% year-over-year. However, during the reporting period, about 164,000 newly mined Bitcoins were produced, and miner outflows to exchanges nearly match this new supply, indicating a “mine-and-sell” survival mode.

Key Data on Miner Market

Total Miner Revenue: Down 11% quarter-over-quarter

Bitcoin Mining Stock: Decreased approximately 7% overall

Bitcoin Outflows from Miners to Exchanges: Increased only 1% quarter-over-quarter (supply pressure temporarily manageable)

Total Miner Holdings: About 684,000 coins (gradually declining since late 2023)

Some miners have adopted more aggressive strategies. Bitdeer has sold all its Bitcoin reserves; Core Scientific and MARA also announced plans to sell holdings to shift resources to AI infrastructure businesses. VanEck warns that if Bitcoin prices remain depressed, miners may be forced to accelerate sales to cover fixed dollar costs, further intensifying supply-side pressure.

Options Hedging Sentiment Reaches June 2021 Peak

The options market shows the most historically significant signal in this report. The put-to-call open interest ratio peaked at 0.84, with an average of 0.77, the highest level since China’s Bitcoin mining ban in June 2021, and in the 91st percentile of all observations since mid-2019.

The premium of put options over spot trading volume reached about 4 basis points, a new historical high—about three times the level after the Terra/Luna collapse in 2022. The total open interest in derivatives reached $33.4 billion (up 3% quarter-over-quarter), indicating that despite a clear cooling of futures leverage, derivatives exposure remains high. VanEck also notes that the put/call premium ratio has reached 2.0, the highest since summer 2022.

Contrarian Indicator of Extreme Put-Heavy Sentiment: Historical D9 Skew and Return Data

VanEck’s report introduces a percentile analysis of historical options skew. Currently, the skew is in the D9 range (second-highest), with historical data showing:

• Average Bitcoin return over the next 90 days: +13.2% (ranked first among ten intervals)

• Average Bitcoin return over the next 360 days: +133.2% (ranked third)

• Historical average return of Bitcoin over 90 days: -4.6%

• Historical average return of Bitcoin over 360 days: +102.2%

The report clearly states: “When the options market shows such panic sentiment, Bitcoin tends to rebound… This kind of sentiment usually signals market bottoms rather than tops.” This is a historical statistical pattern, not a direct prediction of future performance. VanEck also notes that the company holds Bitcoin exposure, and readers should be aware of potential conflicts of interest.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why are miners almost selling all newly mined Bitcoin in the VanEck report?
Miner revenue has decreased by 11%, mining stocks down 7%, and after the halving, block rewards per coin have shrunk. Miners need to sell Bitcoin continuously to cover fixed dollar costs like electricity and equipment depreciation. With profit margins tightening, their financial buffer is extremely limited.

Q: What does a put-to-call ratio of 0.77 indicate about the market?
This suggests an unusually strong demand for downside protection, in the 91st percentile since mid-2019. Historically, when skew reaches D9 percentile, the 90-day average return of Bitcoin is +13.2%. However, past patterns do not guarantee future performance and should be considered alongside macro conditions.

Q: Does declining on-chain activity mean Bitcoin demand is shrinking?
VanEck points out that declines in on-chain indicators (transfer volume -31%, daily average fees -27%) partly reflect a shift of activity to off-chain venues (derivatives, centralized exchanges, ETFs), rather than a demand decline. As Bitcoin becomes more financialized, traditional on-chain metrics are less representative of overall market activity.