Gate News reports that on March 17, on the prediction market Polymarket, two smart money accounts invested $23,800 in the “No” position for the question “Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair?” Currently, the probability is at 94%.
According to the market’s settlement rules, the candidate must receive formal confirmation from the U.S. Senate to settle as “Yes.” If the President appoints the candidate through a recess appointment without Senate approval, it does not meet the settlement criteria. Additionally, if no one receives Senate confirmation for the chairmanship by December 31, 2026, the market will settle as “Other.”
Recently, the U.S. Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, attempting to pressure him to resign early. However, Powell has taken a firm stance, stating he will not resign amid the investigation threats and may serve as Fed Chair until his term ends in January 2028. Several key senators have publicly stated that they will resolutely oppose any new Fed nominations in the Senate until the Department of Justice withdraws its lawsuits and investigations against Powell.
The trading account addresses are: 0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b and 0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df, with a total investment of $23,800. Based on their trading patterns, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually happen; they tend to close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening.
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