Bitcoin surged to $73,200 this morning, hitting a recent high, while Ethereum broke through $2,200; the fear index remains in the “extreme fear” zone, but nearly $191 million in futures liquidations occurred within 24 hours, mainly on short positions. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, expressed optimism in an CNBC interview, believing the stock market may have already bottomed this month.
(Background: Two Indian oil tankers have passed through the Hormuz Strait; Iran’s Foreign Minister: only US and Israeli ships will be blocked)
(Additional context: Cuba’s president confirms talks with the US, oil blockade for 3 months, protests attack party offices)
Bitcoin reached $73,200 this morning, currently at $72,410. Ethereum broke the $2,200 mark, briefly at $2,196.62. The fear index rose from 15 yesterday to 23 today, still indicating extreme fear. Futures liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled $191 million, concentrated on short positions. As Trump gathers allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz, tensions involving Iran and oil seem to be under control.
Tom Lee told CNBC that tech stocks are actually performing quite well, including software stocks. Rising oil prices are relatively bullish for the US stock market. One reason is that the US is a net oil producer. When people worry that rising oil prices will slow global economic growth, they tend to prefer growth stocks. This encourages investors to buy US stocks, especially in the MAG-7 and software sectors.
Tom Lee also believes the stock market may be forming a bottom this month. The issues with private credit have existed for some time and are only now becoming more apparent. However, he thinks the situation is not as systemic as the market fears. Many associate problems with Lehman Brothers and the 2008 financial crisis, but there are reasons to believe this time is different. First, the market size is not as large as back then. Second, the current credit stress signals are not as severe as in 2008. Therefore, he does not see this as a systemic threat to the entire market or economy.
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