Real Vision Founder Raoul Pal Posts Amid Market Pessimism, Listing 12 Bullish Reasons Including Global Liquidity Expansion, U.S. Fiscal Liquidity Rebound, Progress of the CLARITY Act, and 50% Yearly Growth in Stablecoin Issuance, Stating the Crypto Market Is in “Historically Oversold” Condition, with the Next Two Weeks as a Critical Period.
(Background: Will Bitcoin Rise or Fall Next? A Clear Look at Bull and Bear Arguments)
(Additional Context: Is Bitcoin Still the “Weather Vane” of Global Liquidity?)
Table of Contents
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- Core Argument: Global Liquidity Continues to Expand
- Six Major Policies and Structural Bullish Factors
- Technical Analysis: DeMark Indicators Confirm Bottom Within Two Weeks
- The Only Risk: Oil Prices
While many technical analysts declare the “trend is over,” macro investors and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal posted a detailed article on X, systematically listing reasons he believes the crypto market is about to reverse. He clearly states:
I can see how frustrated everyone is, but I disagree (that the trend is over).
Core Argument: Global Liquidity Continues to Expand
Raoul Pal’s bullish logic is always based on liquidity. He points out that global liquidity (Global Liquidity) has had a correlation coefficient of up to 90% with BTC since 2012, and 97% with the Nasdaq Index. It is currently growing at about 10% annually with no signs of slowing down.
He mentions that his GMI (Global Macro Investor) financial conditions index leads the market by about six months and remains in an easing trend. Although U.S. total liquidity was temporarily constrained due to government shutdowns, this indicator leads the crypto market by about three months and has already accelerated its rebound from lows three months ago.
Six Major Policies and Structural Bullish Factors
In addition to liquidity data, Raoul Pal lists several structural bullish factors:
- eSLR Easing: The supplemental leverage ratio (eSLR) mechanism allows banks to expand credit and absorb government bond issuance to increase liquidity. This part of liquidity is rising and will accelerate.
- Tax Refund Effect: Tax refunds flow into bank balance sheets, boosting credit creation and further promoting liquidity.
- China’s Balance Sheet Expansion: China is accelerating its balance sheet expansion.
- Interest Rate Cut Expectations: The U.S. is expected to cut rates further, increasing disposable income and risk appetite.
- CLARITY Act: This legislation is expected to remove barriers for banks and asset managers entering the crypto market. Raoul Pal describes it as “a wall of banks and asset managers waiting to use this technology.”
- Stablecoin Growth: Stablecoin issuance grew 50% last year and is still accelerating, with trading volumes reaching trillions of dollars.
Technical Analysis: DeMark Indicators Confirm Bottom Within Two Weeks
On the technical side, Raoul Pal notes that the crypto market is currently in the “most oversold” state in history. He cites the DeMark indicator (now available officially on TradingView), believing that the weekly DeMark will signal a “very solid bottom” within two weeks, and the daily DeMark is also stacking. He states that any further decline from now will complete the daily and weekly counts, triggering a full trend reversal signal.
The Only Risk: Oil Prices
Raoul Pal also admits that the only variable risk is how long oil prices stay high. Currently, due to tensions with Iran, crude oil has risen to $112 per barrel. He also mentions that AI agents will bring a new accessible market (TAM) and “supercharge” the development of the entire ecosystem.
He concludes succinctly: “The next two weeks are the key focus. I believe all of this will resolve positively. Higher.”
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