Understanding Rate Cuts for Beginners: From Definition to the Latest Fed Forecast

The basic meaning of interest rate cut

“Interest rate cut” refers to the central bank using policy measures to lower interest rates, thereby affecting the borrowing costs in the financial market. After the interest rate is lowered, the costs of corporate loans, personal home loans, and car loans will decrease. An interest rate cut is one of the important tools to promote economic recovery.

When the economy falls into a period of weakness, businesses hesitate to invest and consumers are reluctant to spend, the government may lower interest rates to “inject confidence” and release more funds into the real economy.

What does “一码” interest rate cut mean?

In financial media, it is often said “a rate cut of one basis point”, but actually one basis point represents 25 basis points, or 0.25%. This is a commonly used “measurement unit” when central banks adjust interest rates globally. If we say “a rate cut of two basis points”, it indicates a reduction in interest rates by 0.5%.

For example, when the Fed lowers the interest rate from 5.25% to 5%, it is referred to as “a 25 basis point cut.”

What is the difference between interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts?

• Interest rate cut: It adjusts borrowing costs and affects the price mechanism.
• Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut: The adjustment is to the bank reserve requirement ratio, allowing banks to have more funds available for lending.

Although both are monetary easing measures, interest rate cuts focus more on market expectations and guiding sentiment, while reserve requirement ratio cuts focus more on the supply of funds. A reserve requirement ratio cut can be seen as “blood replenishment,” while an interest rate cut is about “burden reduction.”

How does interest rate reduction affect our lives?

1. Lower loan interest rates: Monthly mortgage payments may decrease by hundreds to over a thousand yuan, especially affecting those with mortgages the most.
2. Deposit interest rate cut: Depositors’ interest decreases, may turn to wealth management, bond funds and other products.
3. Asset prices are rising: the real estate market, stock market, and funds are generally benefiting.
4. The risk of currency depreciation is rising: if the interest rate cut cycle is prolonged, it may bring inflationary pressures.

For the average person, a rate cut is a double-edged sword: borrowing money becomes easier, but the “time value” of money is declining.

The expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025 is heating up.

As we enter the second half of 2025, the market’s expectations for interest rate cuts are rapidly rising:

• The Fed’s June meeting minutes show that most committee members believe that interest rates can be cut more than once before the end of the year.
• In terms of institutional forecasts, Goldman Sachs expects three consecutive rate cuts starting in September, each by 25 basis points; Citigroup predicts that the policy rate will fall to 3–3.25% by the end of the year.
• Government bond yields continue to decline, gold rises above 3330 USD, and the stock market also reflects the liquidity expectations brought about by interest rate cuts.

This series of signals indicates that monetary policy is transitioning from “tightening” to “loosening,” and the market cycle may soon reverse.

How to prepare for a rate cut cycle in advance?

1. Savings strategy adjustment: Focus on money market funds, short-term bond funds, and other alternatives to fixed deposits.
2. Investment focus shifts to growth assets: tech stocks, innovative sectors, real estate funds, etc., which typically benefit from interest rate cuts.
3. Loan users can timely repay the loan early or lock in the floating interest rate.
4. Focus on inflation expectations: If price levels gradually rise, the central bank may tighten policies again.