Why has the expectation of interest rate cuts in December plummeted, and why does BTC frequently fall below 100,000 dollars?

Original title: Bitcoin slips below $100,000 as total crypto liquidations hit $463 million

Original author: RT Watson

Original source: theblock

Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy

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The trading price of Bitcoin is $98,841.86, having dropped over 2% in the past 24 hours.

JPMorgan analysts have stated that the estimated production cost of Bitcoin, which has historically acted as a price floor or support level, has risen to around $94,000.

On Thursday, Bitcoin saw the cryptocurrency price drop below the important psychological level of $100,000 for the third time this month, with a total cryptocurrency liquidation amount reaching $463 million in the past 24 hours.

As of 1:34 PM Eastern Time, the trading price of Bitcoin was $98,841.86. A few hours earlier, The Block published a report in which JPMorgan analysts stated that they believe Bitcoin's support level is around $94,000. As of Thursday afternoon, Bitcoin had fallen over 2%.

CoinGlass data shows that $342 million of the liquidations in all digital assets came from long positions. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin spot ETF evaporated approximately $278 million on Wednesday.

Analysts at JPMorgan pointed out in a report released on Wednesday that the estimated production cost of Bitcoin, which has historically served as a price floor or support level, has risen from a recent estimate of around $92,000 to about $94,000. The sharp increase in Bitcoin network difficulty over the past few months has driven up the estimated production cost.

Cryptocurrencies that fell on Thursday were not limited to Bitcoin. According to data from The Block, other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also dropped by about 6%, and crypto-related stocks were also hit hard. As of the time of publication, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index was down 2.45%, and the S&P 500 index was down 1.56%.

The probability of interest rate cuts has decreased.

From a macro perspective, Nic Puckrin, co-founder and analyst of The Coin Bureau, stated on Thursday morning that the potential impact of a government shutdown and the reduced likelihood of interest rate cuts could put pressure on Bitcoin's price.

“The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October was originally scheduled to be released today, but due to the government shutdown, there seems to be a gap in federal data releases,” he said. “Therefore, it is not surprising that the likelihood of a rate cut in December has significantly decreased.”

“As the most uncertain Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year approaches, we may see funds further flow into safe-haven and defensive assets,” Parklin added. “Traders are best advised to remain vigilant in the coming weeks, especially those allocated to high-risk assets like Bitcoin.”