0318 Bitcoin Daily Report #美联储利率决议

Bitcoin's uptrend has temporarily stalled ahead of the interest rate decision. Overnight, the short-term briefly broke through $75,000, then retreated below $74,000 at close, ending a streak of 8 consecutive days of gains.

Market focus remains on liquidity tightness issues. Considering that multiple central banks are adopting tightening or more hawkish rhetoric, when government bond yields rise, the bond market typically absorbs capital from other markets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may face downward pressure, and recent upward momentum could be lost. Currently, if the benchmark rate remains unchanged as market expectations suggest, traders may focus more on policy tone, the dot plot, or language nuances, quickly pricing in expectations for the coming weeks. Possible scenarios for Bitcoin: 1. If the dot plot suggests two rate cuts, Bitcoin could rise at least 3%, with price potentially holding above $75,000. 2. If rates remain unchanged with no clear directional guidance, the market may experience brief profit-taking, causing price pullbacks to retest the $70,000 psychological level. 3. If hawkish language is harsh and concerns about oil price impact on inflation are expressed, signaling no rate cuts this year, Bitcoin could fall back toward the $65,000 zone.

Technical outlook: Multiple indicators show bullish momentum is weakening, with the market entering a brief neutral phase, showing consolidation or directional hesitation in the short term. Key levels: $78,800 is a critical structural resistance—if breached, it could trigger a structural shift and establish a stronger bullish pattern for the coming weeks. The $70,200 psychological level, as this price coincides with the 50-period moving average—if price cannot move away from this level, most of the market will fall into hesitation and consolidation again, limiting the continuation of the uptrend.