Yogigi

I think I’ve cracked the crypto cycle. It’s not four year cycles. It’s a Star Wars trilogy.
2024: A New Hope
Crypto bounces back post FTX. Survivors come out of the cracks. Builders come back. Funding gears up. A crypto president enters the horizon, with Warren Death Star destroyed. Hope returns. Meme szn.
2025: The Empire Strikes Back
Macro uncertainty hits. Rails are being built, but they need time. Genius Act passes, opens doors for institutions and stables. But it’s also crime szn. Retail gets burned by a million rugs. Vapor coins finally begin dying. 10/10 people get hurt. Leverage nuked

Looksmaxxing tells me we’ve double topped as a society and there’s probably a world war on the horizon.
Bc man this is just silly.

Lighter TGE’d so we wouldn’t have to see any more Lighter fan boys vs .hls talk about metrics on X.
Sadly it’s worse they are double downing and doing PA on a one day chart while people panic why the coin price is more stable than the chain built for stables. Trillions.

There’s an asset bubble on early stage, new category companies.
Thus, lower risk adjusted returns and the need for people to gamble.
Most of FANG, Mag7 whatever, gave people years of entry / opportunity.
Now we have barely proven ideas launching at absurd vals.

What happened to MegaETH? Either my feed is broken or it’s been relatively quiet from them and the eco. Figured we’d get mainnet around w/ Monad.

Fraud happens ok. Don’t worry if we fail annual audits. $100B is cost of business.
Oh you have $10 in taxes due?!
We are going to seize your house.
How did we get here?

Lighter probably goes under 2, high confidence and maybe under 1.
It’s way too much float for this environment.
Looking at all recent launches - we see token retention of airdrops at less than 30%. Maybe this is different.

Congrats to Lighter and ecosystem on launch. I like th token framework from what I’ve seen so far.
The next phase will be most telling.
How does the market handle 25% of LIT supply hitting the market, that’s $750M in sell pressure at $3.
I’m a buyer under $2. Curious if we go there or lower.
Especially after 10/10, lot of people have been waiting for this stimulus bailout.
No ding on team and product purely talking token price, liquidity event and current crypto macro.

The final season of stranger things is like a million times worse than that of game of thrones.
I skipped through the entire season, all of it could’ve been one episode.
Netflix better not buy WB or it’s going to kill media.
But we have AI + indie artists now so ehh.

Crypto has no users and the entire category screams its at Series A.
So each token at or in unlocks can’t survive because the sector as a whole lacks the users and revenue to justify the valuations and thus there is limited to no demand.
Furthermore, the tokens have no equity rights and even though some believe the founders would stick to their word, without any legal support, no one will support a trust me bro on this and thus there are no demand for tokens at unlocks.
Lastly, most of these things are not 0 to 1 or something that people desperately want or need. So anyways ya, that’s why t

overheard in nyc this weekend:
"Bro I’m giga bullish on lighter but vlad makes Kamala Harris sound like Shakespeare"

White Whale is bet on a dude who grew an account to $60M+ on HyperLiquid, got blown out by 10/10, and CTO’d a meme to protect his image.
Now imagine someone running a coin that has an IQ over a 100, successful life, wealth, and isn’t a greedy larp. Imagine if Becker, Pauly, BenEth had any of these qualities.
Also, memes are usual born when tourists leave. Pepe, Mog, Harry Potter, Fart etc.
The trenches may have their first winner since 2024.

Minnesota can spend billions on welfare but they can’t fix their infrastructure. We lose power on the smallest things.
Today it’s a snow storm which is pretty weak from a historical perspective. And bam lights out.

Patreon > Zora
Coins are not content.
Content is not financial infra or speculation.
Creators do not want to be market makers for every post.
Fans want to support creators, not trade their posts. And creators clip a fee lol.
Patreon aggregates belief. Zora doesn’t.

Silver export controls from China weren’t on the bingo card. 2x since the summer.
Silver and Copper have utility and mines take years.
With AI and insane energy demand, I still believe there will be squeezes on demand and there’s room for upside.

Whitewhale is making us believe in something again.
From the depths, now we’re here.