Crypto_Xincheng

💹 Life's Wealth Accumulation Depends on Kondratiev Cycles
According to mainstream Kondratiev cycle analysis, 2026 is currently at the tail end of the depression phase of the Fifth Kondratiev Cycle (driven by information technology/internet), while simultaneously marking the beginning or eve of the recovery/expansion phase of the Sixth Kondratiev Cycle (driven by AI + new energy + biotechnology as core drivers). This is a typical window for old-to-new growth driver transition, often referred to by many as "darkness before dawn" or "critical node in cycle transition."
Zhou Jinzhao and other cyc

Nasdaq Poised for a "Crash" 📉
I've been warning across major platforms that the U.S. stock market has topped out since 24K. Looking back, all my predictions have come to pass as expected.
The last pullback was 25%, and this wave is also expected to be around 25%, so watch the 18K-20K range for U.S. stocks next.
🤌What impact does a major U.S. stock market correction have on cryptocurrency?
Bitcoin is now essentially like tech stocks in the U.S. market. Over the past year-plus, the correlation coefficient between BTC and the Nasdaq has frequently fluctuated between 0.5-0.8, and has even hit 0.

Investing is not a game in which a person with an IQ of 160 beats a person with an IQ of 130. It's a game in which discipline beats intelligence.
——Warren Buffett

OpenAI Plans to Launch Desktop Super App
Based on currently available information, the core strategy of this super app is to combine the following elements:
① ChatGPT's chat/multimodal interaction interface
② Codex (now leaning more toward advanced coding tools/IDE integration)
③ Atlas browser (their AI-native browser launched late last year)
④ Native integration of Agent/AI agent capabilities, allowing AI to autonomously operate on user computers and execute closed-loop tasks (such as writing code → running → debugging → analyzing based on real-time webpage data)
Essentially, it's moving in t

# Beautiful Country Labor Department Just Announced Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending March 14
**Actual value: 205,000 people** – significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000 and also below the previous week's 213,000. This is a clearly strong employment data that beat expectations, indicating the U.S. labor market has strong resilience with layoff scales much smaller than anticipated.
## Impact on Cryptocurrency:
① **Reduced Rate Cut Expectations (Hawkish Signal):** Strong employment data means the economy doesn't need emergency stimulus, increasing the likelihood that

BTC
Yesterday, there was a rapid pullback before the interest rate decision was announced.
Over the past two days, BlackRock has been continuously depositing Bitcoin to exchanges, which has also triggered panic sentiment in the market.
Currently, this position is a particularly important short-term level at the 69500 support. If this level is breached, the next support will be around 66300. The key thing to watch now is whether the 1-hour chart can oscillate to the right around 69500. If so, it will repair the MACD zero-line rebound. Then watch whether the 71600 level above can break through.

BlackRock has deposited another 930 BTC and 12,687 ETH into Cb.
70K is about to fall below, with the next target at 68K–66K.
#美联储维持利率不变

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Dot Plot Summary Released at 2:00 AM Beijing Time:
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% unchanged (median approximately 3.625%), with voting results of 11-1 (one member supported an immediate rate cut), in line with 100% market expectations.
⭐️Dot Plot:
End of 2026: 3.4% (approximately 0.225 percentage points lower than current median, corresponding to one 25bp rate cut)
End of 2027: 3.1%
End of 2028: 3.1%
Long-term neutral rate: 3.1% (increased 0.1 percentage points from December 2025)
(2026: 1 rate cut, l

# How Should We Approach Our Mindset on Cryptocurrency Given Current Conditions and Market Trends?
This is a transition from "technical analysis" to "mindset building" — the most critical step in navigating the current complex landscape. In this highly uncertain macro environment (war, stagflation, hawkish Fed), preserving capital and mental health is more important than pursuing gains.
During this special period of "macro headwinds + geopolitical volatility" in 2026, I recommend establishing the following mindsets:
**① Acknowledge "unpredictability," embrace "extreme conservatism"**
The curre

March 19 (Thursday) 2:00 AM - Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision to be Announced
Previous: 3.75% Forecast: 3.75%
The market has 100% priced in that this meeting will neither raise nor cut rates, with the benchmark rate remaining unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%; however, the true epicenter lies in the subsequent "dot plot" and Powell's speech. Influenced by stagflation risks triggered by Middle East geopolitical tensions, this meeting will likely release "hawkish" signals.
The real market dynamics are not about the rate change itself, but rather how the Federal Reserve views "a future disrupted

Crypto market sentiment has improved slightly, but is it about to be dumped by whales again?
Indeed, bull market rallies in bear markets are just better opportunities to exit positions.
In summary, whether from macro, technical, or policy perspectives, we cannot determine that we've already emerged from the bear market. Simply put, none of these are sufficient to support a reversal in the market.
At this stage, patient dollar-cost averaging, adjusting your mindset, and consistently earning cash flow is the way to go.

3.16 BTC, ETH Weekly Review
BTC
The weekly chart closed with a large bullish candle, recovering the losses from the previous four weeks. During this period, I've been highlighting this level with everyone, and from various indicators, this is an opportunity for batch dollar-cost averaging. Currently, the daily chart has reached a critical line between bulls and bears. The strong resistance above this level is around 73,500. As long as this level holds, and the fast/slow lines can stay above the zero axis, it indicates there is still room for upside. Breaking through 73,500 requires careful att

# Major Events This Week (3.16-3.22):
## Seven Central Banks Release Monetary Policy Decisions
**Tuesday 11:30** – Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision
**Wednesday 21:45** – Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision
**Thursday** (specific time TBD) – Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
**Thursday 16:30** – Swiss National Bank announces interest rate decision
**Thursday 02:00**– Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary;**Thursday 02:30** – Fed Chair Powell holds press conference on monetary policy
**Thursday 20

Should You Go All-In on Bitcoin Right Now?
Consider the following two indicators:
① Two-Year MA Multiplier Indicator
When the price drops below the 2-year moving average (green line), it signals a bottom-fishing buy opportunity, and purchasing bitcoin will generate excess returns.
When the price exceeds the 2-year moving average X5 (red line), it signals a sell-the-top signal, and selling bitcoin will yield substantial gains.
Currently, bitcoin's price has broken below the green line, meaning the current price offers good value and is worth dollar-cost averaging into.
② 200-Week Moving Average

# AI Lobster Craze: Is 2026 Really the Agent Era?
2026 is indeed being called the "Agent Era" by many, and the "AI lobster farming" phenomenon is the most vivid grassroots annotation of this landmark year.
Simply put, "farming lobsters" refers to deploying and using open-source AI agents like OpenClaw. Netizens affectionately call the entire process of "installation → training → feeding prompts → letting it work autonomously" as "farming lobsters."
Why did it suddenly explode? Here's the core takeaway in one sentence:
**AI has evolved from "being able to chat" to "actually getting things done.

March 19
02:00 Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision
02:30 Powell holds monetary policy press conference
20:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14

# Core Differences Between HYPE and ASTER:
①HYPE (Hyperliquid)
A high-performance Layer 1 blockchain optimized from scratch, built specifically for decentralized trading. The core is an on-chain order book for perpetuals + spot trading exchange, utilizing HyperBFT consensus to achieve sub-second latency (<1 second finality), process 100k+ orders per second, zero Gas fees (partial), and market maker rebates. Supports up to 50x leverage, one-click trading, copy trading vaults, and more. Has integrated HyperEVM (smart contracts).
Token utility: Staking (≥10k HYPE for validators, security + govern

$HYPE as the leader of DEX has completed its mission in the current bear market phase, rising 85% from $21 to $38, outperforming 99% of tokens.
ASTER, with its strong background, has underperformed significantly. It has been hovering around 0.7 currently, oscillating in a narrow range between 0.68 to 0.75. K-line patterns at all levels have been mostly repaired. This position can be used to take a small stop loss to speculate on upside space, with the stop loss placed at 0.68 for a breakdown reversal exit. Watch whether 0.75 can break above resistance, and if it does, pay attention to the 0.8