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The BTC options market shows only a 25% chance of reaching $84,000 in May
Deep Tide TechFlow News, May 2nd, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin retook the $78,000 level on Friday, with a 15% increase over the past 30 days, but the derivatives market remains cautious about further gains. Deribit data shows that the BTC call options expiring on May 29th with a strike price of $84,000 are trading at 0.0136 BTC (about $1,063), with only a 25% probability of Bitcoin rising 8% to that level by the end of May.
The 30-day delta skew indicator for options has remained above the 6% neutral threshold for the past month, reflecting rising put option premiums and increased demand for downside protection. The BTC monthly futures basis rate typically exceeds the spot premium by 4% to 8%, but has been weak over the past 30 days, partly due to Bitcoin’s 12% decline since early 2026.
Despite the cautious stance in the derivatives market, institutional spot demand remains strong. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.3 billion in March, with an additional $2 billion in April, pushing total net assets above $100 billion. Over the past 30 days, listed companies have significantly increased their holdings, including Strategy (MSTR) adding 56,235 BTC, Metaplanet (3350) adding 5,075 BTC, and Strive (ASST) adding 929 BTC, collectively absorbing an amount equivalent to five months of future Bitcoin mining supply.