I. Today’s Market Key Developments

1. Geopolitical Factors Drive Surge
Today (May 1), influenced by geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin briefly broke through $77,000, rising over 2% intraday, demonstrating its safe-haven properties. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil soared to $111, with escalating Middle East tensions impacting global asset pricing.

2. Divergence Between Institutional and Retail Funds
Despite the rebound, there is a contradiction in the fund structure. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $14.7 million yesterday, with institutions continuing to buy; on-chain data shows about 10k BTC (worth $760 million) flowing into exchanges, indicating some large holders may be selling, creating a battle between bulls and bears.

3. Altcoins Weak and Diverging Indicators
The rebound is mainly driven by derivatives, while spot demand remains negative, similar to the pre-2022 decline. Ethereum (ETH) underperforms Bitcoin, struggling around $2,260, with ETF funds continuing to flow out, indicating the market currently only recognizes Bitcoin.

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II. Positioning Recommendations

1. Short-term Strategy: Wait and See
Current prices are in a wide range of $74,000 to $79,000, at the midpoint. Chasing higher risks breaking support; shorting faces the risk of sudden geopolitical escalation causing a surge. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines.

2. Structural Allocation: Bitcoin Gold, Altcoin Silver
If holding positions is necessary, only allocate to Bitcoin (BTC). Altcoins’ liquidity is rapidly drying up; do not bottom-fish ETH or SOL before the market volume breaks through $80,000.

3. Risk Warning
Pay attention to the movements of “Exchange Whales.” If within the next 48 hours, the $760 million worth of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges starts to sell off, prices could quickly drop to $74,000 or even $72,000 support levels. #WCTC交易王PK $BTC