Shouchuang Futures: Geopolitical risk premium declines, pure benzene futures prices drop sharply

Spot market, CFR China pure benzene price is $1203/ton, up $25/ton from the previous trading day.
In terms of costs, the US accepts Iran’s ten-point demands, Iran temporarily opens the Strait, and both sides agree to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations to begin on April 10.
Geopolitical tensions ease, international oil prices plummet, and energy chemical products collectively decline.
Regarding supply, recent reports of force majeure due to raw material shortages from domestic and foreign refineries have increased.
Last week, domestic pure benzene operating rates decreased by 3.2 percentage points, and Asian pure benzene operating rates decreased by 2.3 percentage points.
Pure benzene inventories at East China ports decreased by 4k tons, and the supply-demand inventory reduction in April is expected to increase.
On the demand side, downstream styrene and phenol start-up rates have increased, while other downstream sectors remain generally stable.
In summary, domestic pure benzene supply and demand have tightened, but geopolitical tensions ease, and falling costs benefit overseas plant recoveries, which may alter the future supply-demand structure of the pure benzene market.
In the short term, under cost-driven conditions, short-term pure benzene futures are expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention to US-Iran negotiations, the resumption of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, and the resulting changes in plant operation rates.
(First Capital Futures)