Crude Oil: WTI declines as traders focus on Trump's speech regarding the Iran war

Crude oil prices fell, with sharp intraday swings, as traders watched to see whether U.S. President Donald Trump would soon announce an end to the war in Iran.

WTI futures fell 1.2%, with the settlement price slightly above $100 per barrel, after dropping as much as about 4.8% earlier.

On Wednesday morning, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that Tehran has submitted a ceasefire request, a development that weighed on oil prices. Traders are closely monitoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the war broke out at the end of February, the strait has effectively been blocked by Iran. Iran, in turn, responded that it will not reopen the waterway due to the U.S. leader’s “absurd actions,” and said the future of this key shipping route will be decided by Iran and Oman.

White House officials said Trump will say during Wednesday’s prime-time address that he has achieved success in Iran’s military operations, and emphasized that the operation could end within two to three weeks.

Crude oil prices are still up about 40% from March, and the war has kept pressure on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

If the U.S. pulls out, it remains unclear whether and how quickly traffic through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. Trump has repeatedly said that U.S. allies must help ensure the strait’s security. Increasing energy production in the region also takes time, but if conditions ease, it will help reduce the risk of further damage to infrastructure.

“Everyone is holding their breath for tonight’s news, ready to hit the buy/sell button at any time,” Enverus oil and gas analyst Carl Larry said. “There aren’t many opportunities for oil prices to fall sharply, but right now anything is possible. $100 is a key level—we’ll trade around this level until the next key piece of news appears.”

For spot markets, weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 5.5 million barrels, the highest level since June 2023. At the same time, due to disruptions in Middle East crude supplies, demand for alternative grades surged, driving a series of Atlantic-linked crude prices to multi-year highs on Wednesday.

In the New York session, WTI May futures fell 1.2%, settling at $100.12 per barrel.

The June Brent futures settlement price fell 2.7%, to $101.16 per barrel.

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