4.6 Review, easing, and this week looks like a recovery.

Last Friday, the pre-holiday effect combined with geopolitical uncertainty. Trading volume reached 1.6 trillion yuan, and it continued to shrink by over 16k. This kind of volume is basically also an indicator of a potential turning point. Judging from the holiday weekend’s external news, expectations are that things will likely ease afterward. Chuanzi originally planned to consider whether to step up the crackdown on April 6, but then he extended it by one more day—so basically it’s just a big delaying tactic. After that, it’s still likely that negotiations will have a higher probability, because if they keep fighting, it won’t align with either side’s interests. Whether it’s Beautiful Country’s anti-war protests, or Chuanzi’s midterm election, or even the Fed’s rate cut in November—at this moment, the key is to bring down oil prices and inflation. If it escalates further, both Chuanzi and Langzi don’t want to see that. [Taoguba]

On the market, on Friday the strongest performance came from the big technology sector—OCS and fiber-optic directions. When the broader market and sentiment were both dropping sharply, they went against the trend and hit new highs. Fundamentally, it’s also because institutions are confident about the probability of easing afterward. Money moved in early to take the lead. Once the broader market truly starts repairing upward, you should be careful about the risk of acceleration. At present, this big technology has some resemblance to the prior precious metals. Over the next 1–2 days, you’ll see the stubborn guys go and catch the acceleration. On-site funds will most likely not sell, and a small amount of off-site capital could be enough to lift the market. When the index begins to rebound and repair, then choose another branch for a high–low rotation. Currently, institutions are hyping MPO and MT as they look for chip-insert related catch-up gains.

In healthcare/pharma: on Thursday night, the U.S. imposed higher tariffs on innovative drugs, which was somewhat of a negative for the sector. Actually the main negative impact was for overseas-related businesses, but it didn’t have much effect on CROs and generic drug players. A few names at the top continued to have differences while still moving stronger. It’s becoming more and more like the power sector from the previous period. After the divergences on Friday, tomorrow is expected to be a repair/rebound and a return to bullish expectations. But in this kind of situation, you should draw lessons from the power sector earlier: either you go high, or you cut to low. The “2-to-3” move in the mid-range might not get much love from funds. In the power sector, many of them died on “2-to-3” or “3-to-4.” For tomorrow, ideally the Tianjin pharma segment breaks the divergence a bit to the downside; then it will be easier to get follow-through. Both the consecutive-limit stock Jinyao Pharma and the trend-focused Wanbangde will also face 100% anomaly/volatility suppression tomorrow. However, at the start of the week, in my personal view, funds should be able to choose to break through. Those who are afraid of chasing highs can pay attention to low-position first-board opportunities.

Commercial aerospace: April still has frequent launch missions. This sector can still be viewed as a rotation play. Some core names have already passed their previous highs. After that, continue to watch after they go sideways—once they manage to re-accumulate chips and break upward. In short, at this time, it’s hard for commercial aerospace to rise across the board collectively; you can only focus on a few of the core tightly held names.

If Hűrmuz Strait gets opened up later, you can continue to watch the RMB settlement and shipping sector. Also, tomorrow Zhengliwen’s visit to the mainland—watch how public opinion develops; this will likely fluctuate as well. Try to buy where there’s disagreement and sell where there’s consensus.

The above views are for my personal records only and are for reference purposes only. They do not include any investment advice.

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For the subsequent position in China Great Wall, I won’t post screenshots anymore. I’m not saying I like this stock that much. Actually, I’ve been stuck in it for a long time. Since I started trading stocks, I’ve always done ultra-short-term. This time, I only want to hold it for a longer period to see whether, without cutting losses, it can get me back to breakeven. That’s all. Going forward, I’ll treat it as a medium-to-long-term hold, not post it under my short-term positions. From the recent performance of Intel and AMD in the U.S. stock market, they’ve already started to rebound. Personally, I’ll watch whether it can follow along.