[U.S. Economic Data] March Non-Farm Payrolls Increase by 178k Jobs, Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.3%

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in March, nonfarm payrolls added 178k jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.

Employment changes by industry:

• Health care and social assistance: Added 76k jobs (with some of the reason being that some physicians returned to their jobs after the end of a physician strike)
• Construction: Added 26k jobs
• Transportation and warehousing: Added 21k jobs (mainly from courier and messenger services)
• Social assistance: Added 14k jobs

Industries with employment declines:

• Federal government: Continued to contract, down 18k people. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment has fallen by 355k people
• Financial activities: Down 15k people

Data revisions:

• January: Revised upward from the original +126k to +160k
• February: Revised downward from -92k to -133k

Report download

$1 below are the data for April 1, 2026===

March ADP employment increased by 62k jobs, above expectations

U.S. March ADP employment rose by 62k jobs, popularly dubbed “small nonfarm,” beating expectations of 40k. The February figure was revised from 63k to 66,000 jobs.

$1 below are the data for March 31, 2026===

U.S. February JOLTS job openings fell to 6.882 million, below expectations｜March Conference Board consumer confidence rose to 91.8, above expectations

U.S. February JOLTS job openings fell from January’s 7.24 million to 178k, slightly below market expectations of 6.89 million.

U.S. March MNI Chicago PMI fell from 57.7 in February to 52.8, far below the market expectation of 55; Conference Board consumer confidence rose from 91 in February to 91.8 in the latest reading, far above the market expectation of 87.9.

U.S. January FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations; the prior value was a rise of 0.3%.

$1 below are the data for March 19, 2026===

U.S. February PPI rose 3.4% year over year, above expectations of 2.9%, while rising 0.7% month over month, also above market expectations of 0.5%. Core February PPI rose 3.9% year over year, above expectations of 3.7%, and rose 0.5% month over month, also above the forecast of 0.3%.

$1 below are the data for March 13, 2026===

The U.S. released a revised figure for fourth-quarter GDP last year of 0.7%, below the estimated 1.4%. The government shutdown in October was a main factor that dragged down the GDP growth rate.

U.S. January PCE price index’s year-over-year increase edged down from 2.9% in December last year to 2.8%, below the market expectation of 2.9%. On a month-over-month basis, it rose 0.3%, in line with expectations. Over the period, the core PCE price index’s year-over-year increase rose from 3.0% in December last year to 3.1%, in line with market expectations, and rose 0.4% month over month, also in line with expectations.

U.S. January personal income rose 0.4% month over month, below expectations of 0.5%. During the period, personal spending rose 0.4% month over month, slightly above expectations of 0.3%.

U.S. March University of Michigan market sentiment initial reading was 55.5, above the expected 55, with the prior value at 56.6. The initial one-year inflation expectation was 3.6%, above both the forecast and the prior value of 3.4%.

$1 below are the data for March 12, 2026===

For the week ending March 7, in the U.S., the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance was 213k, below market expectations of 215k, and the prior value was revised from 213k to 214k. For the week ending February 28, the number of continuing claims for unemployment insurance was 1.85 million, down by 21k week over week, in line with market expectations.

U.S. January housing starts rose 7.2% month over month to 76k, above the market expectation of 1.34 million. Building permits during the period fell from 26k in December last year to 21k, below the expected 1.42 million.

$1 below are the data for March 11, 2026===

U.S. February inflation data fully met expectations. Overall CPI kept a 2.4% year-over-year increase; on a month-over-month basis, the growth rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 0.3%. Core CPI kept a 2.5% year-over-year increase, but the month-over-month growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%.

$1 below are the data for March 6, 2026===

U.S. February nonfarm payroll jobs plunged by 92k, far worse than expected; unemployment rate rose to 4.4%

U.S. February nonfarm employment fell by 92k, far worse than the expected increase of 55k. January was revised down from 130k to 126k. The unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, above expectations and January’s 4.3%. In addition, the number of nonfarm jobs in December last year and January combined was revised down by 69k.

U.S. employment report download

$1 below are the data for March 5, 2026===

U.S. companies announced 55% fewer layoffs in February to 48k｜Initial claims for unemployment insurance were steady at 213k, below expectations

Data from the HR firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in February this year fell 55% month over month to 48,307, and also decreased 72% year over year.

Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer, said that the decline in layoffs in February eased the high layoff plans seen since the beginning of the year. As the U.S. becomes drawn into the Iran war, more layoff plans could appear by the end of the first quarter, because companies will tighten their belts amid uncertainty and rising costs.”

Layoffs in the technology sector were the highest among all industries, at 11k. In addition, education also saw 5,417 layoffs in February.

Meanwhile, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. last week held at 213k, below the expected 215k. The number of continuing claims for unemployment insurance was 14k, above expectations of 18k and the prior value of 355k.

$1 below are the data for March 4, 2026===

The U.S. released its February ADP data, popularly dubbed “small nonfarm.” Employment increased by 63k jobs, above the 50k expected. The January figure was revised down from 22k to 11k.

$1 below are the data for February 25, 2026===

There are signs that U.S. inflation expectations are heating up. The latest January PPI rose 2.9% year over year, above expectations of 2.6%, and rose 0.5% month over month, also above the market expectation of 0.3%. Core PPI rose 3.6% year over year, above December’s 3.3% last year and above expectations.

$1 below are the data for February 24, 2026===

U.S. December FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month over month, below expectations

U.S. December FHFA house price index rose 0.1% month over month, below the 0.3% expected; the prior value was revised from 0.6% up to 0.7%. In addition, U.S. December S&P/CS 20-City seasonally adjusted home price index rose 1.38% year over year, roughly in line with market expectations; the prior value was revised from 1.39% to 1.42%, rising 0.47% month over month, above expectations of 0.3%, with the prior value revised from 0.47% to 0.53%.

$1 below are the data for February 20, 2026===

U.S. fourth-quarter GDP forecast rises only 1.4%｜PCE price index rises 0.4% month over month, above expectations

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s inflation reference indicator, the December PCE price index, came in higher than market expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.4% month over month, above the expected 0.3%, and rose 2.9% year over year, above the expected 2.8%. Core PCE rose 0.4% month over month, also above the expected 0.3%, and rose 3% year over year, above the expected 2.9%.

The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP forecast for last year was 1.4%, below the market’s 2.8% expectation. Fourth-quarter GDP growth was mainly driven by increases in consumer spending and investment, but these gains were offset by declines in government spending and exports.

$1 below are the data for February 19, 2026===

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206k, below expectations｜December trade deficit widened to $70.3 billion, the largest one of the year since 1960

For the week ending February 14, in the U.S., initial claims for unemployment insurance were 206k, below the market’s 225k. The prior value was revised from 227k to 229k. For the week ending February 7, the number of continuing claims for unemployment insurance was 15k, up 17k week over week, with market expectations at 1.86 million.

In addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce said that the December trade deficit in goods and services widened from the previous month to $70.3 billion. The total trade deficit for the full year accumulated to $901.5 billion, still one of the largest deficits since records began in 1960. The U.S. trade deficit in 2024 was $903.5 billion.

$1 below are the data for February 13, 2026===

U.S. January CPI rose 2.4% year over year, below expectations

The U.S. reported that January CPI rose 2.4% year over year, below the market expectation of 2.5%, and rose 0.2% month over month, also below the market expectation of 0.3%. Core CPI rose 2.5% year over year, in line with expectations, and rose 0.3% month over month, also in line with market expectations.

$1 below are the data for February 11, 2026===

U.S. January unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%. Over the period, nonfarm payroll employment added 130k jobs, above expectations of 65k, and the prior value was revised up to 48k.

Report download

It is worth noting that the private sector added as many as 172k jobs, but because the government sector cut 42k positions, the net increase was only 130k.

A large-scale plan for public servants to resign introduced at the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term is intended to allow employees who do not want to keep working under the Trump administration, or who do not want to comply with “return to office” requirements, or who fear being forced into layoffs in the future, to leave in a more moderate manner. During this 6 to 8-month period, they will still receive pay and benefits. The relevant list was formally removed from the federal payroll list in January.

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$1 below are the data for February 7, 2026===

U.S. December import price index rose 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations｜December export price index rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations

ADP released data indicating that for the week ending January 24, companies added 6,500 jobs. U.S. December import price index rose 0.1% month over month, in line with expectations; export price index rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations of 0.1%.

U.S. November business inventories rose 0.1% month over month, below expectations of 0.3% and the prior value of 0.2%.

$1 below are the data for February 6, 2026===

University of Michigan market sentiment initial reading for February rose to 57.3, above expectations; one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.5%, the lowest in 13 months

U.S. February University of Michigan market sentiment initial reading was 57.3, the highest in half a year, above the expected 55, and the prior value was 56.4. The initial one-year inflation expectation was 3.5%, below expectations and the prior value of 4%, and hit the lowest level in 13 months. The initial five-year inflation expectation was 3.4%, slightly above expectations and the prior value of 3.3%.

$1 below are the data for February 5, 2026===

U.S. companies laid off 108k people in January, a sharp month-over-month jump of more than 2 times｜Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 231k last week, above expectations

Data from the HR firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in January this year surged by more than 2 times month over month to 108k people, and also increased by nearly 1.2 times year over year. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week was also far above market expectations.

The firm said that the number of layoffs in January was the highest for the same period since 2009. Andy Challenger, the firm’s chief revenue officer, said that the first quarter typically sees a large number of layoffs, but the sheer number of layoffs in January indicates that the relevant plans had already been drawn up by the end of 2025, reflecting that employers’ outlook for 2026 is not optimistic.

Layoffs in the transportation and logistics industry were the highest among all industries, at 31k jobs, mainly due to UPS (U.S.: UPS) and Amazon (U.S.: AMZN) terminating their partnership and announcing 30k layoffs. In addition, technology companies also laid off more than 22k in January, most of which came from Amazon; the company had previously announced 16k layoffs to reorganize management structure.

Also, the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in the U.S. last week rose from 209k to 231k, above the expected 212k. The number of continuing claims for unemployment insurance was 126k, below expectations of 1.85 million and below the prior value of 160k.

$1 below are the data for February 4, 2026===

ADP added 22k in December, below expectations; U.S. mortgage applications fell 8.9%

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.24 to 6.21. Mortgage loan applications fell 8.9% last week.

The U.S. released its December ADP data, popularly dubbed “small nonfarm.” Employment increased by 22k jobs, below the 45k expected.

$1 below are the data for January 31, 2026===

January S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI final rose to 52.4

January S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI final was 52.4, higher than the initial reading of 51.9. Meanwhile, the U.S. January ISM manufacturing index was 52.6, above expectations of 48.5, and the prior value was 47.9. Among the components, the prices index was 59; new orders rose sharply from 47.4 (revised) to 57.1; employment was 48.1— all higher than the figures from December last year.

$1 below are the data for January 30, 2026===

U.S. December PPI rose 0.5% month over month, above expectations｜December core PPI rose 0.7% month over month

U.S. December PPI rose 0.5% month over month, above the expected 0.2%, and core PPI rose 0.7% month over month, also above the expected 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, December PPI rose 3%, above the expected 2.8%, and core PPI rose 3.3%, above the expected 2.9%

$1 below are the data for January 29, 2026===

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 209k last week, below expectations｜U.S. November factory orders rose 2.7% month over month, beating expectations

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell from 210k to 209k last week, below the expected 205k. The number of continuing claims for unemployment insurance was 92k, below the expected 133k and below the prior value of 62k.

The U.S. November trade deficit widened from October’s $29.2 billion to $56.8 billion, far above expectations of $44.5 billion. U.S. November exports fell 3.6% month over month, a bigger decline than the expected 1.7%; the prior value was revised to a rise of 3%.

U.S. November imports rose 5% month over month, far above expectations of 2.3%. U.S. November factory orders rose 2.7% month over month, exceeding the expected 1.6%. October was a decline of 1.3%.

$1 below are the data for January 27, 2026===

U.S. consumer confidence is the lowest in more than 11 years

The U.S. Economic Advisory Committee said the January consumer confidence index plunged from 94.2 to 84.5, below the expected 91, and the lowest in more than 11 years.

The November FHFA house price index rose 0.6%, above the expected 0.3%, and the prior value was 0.4%.

The S&P CS 20-city index rose 1.39% year over year, above expectations of 1.2%, and the prior value was 1.32%.

$1 below are the data for January 23, 2026===

U.S. January S&P manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.9｜January University of Michigan consumer confidence index revised up to 56.4; one-year inflation outlook revised down to 4%

U.S. January S&P manufacturing PMI was 51.9, slightly below the market expectation of 52, but higher than 51.8 in December last year. The services PMI in the period was steady at 52.5, also lower than the expected 52.9.

U.S. January University of Michigan consumer confidence index final reading was revised up from the preliminary 54 to 56.4; the final one-year inflation forecast was revised down from the preliminary 4.2% to 4%.

$1 below are the data for January 22, 2026===

PCE inflation fully met expectations; month over month only 0.2%. The third-quarter GDP revised value was raised to 4.4%｜Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week inched up to 200k

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s inflation reference indicator shows that November PCE price index fully met expectations. Overall PCE rose 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year. Core PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 2.8% year over year.

U.S. third-quarter GDP revised value was raised from 4.3% to 4.4%

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance last week rose slightly from 199k the previous week to 200k, below the market’s 210k. For continuing claims for unemployment insurance, the prior week fell to 62k, below the expected 40k.

$1 below are the data for January 20, 2026===

ADP: U.S. adds 80,000 jobs in a week

ADP in the U.S. said that for the four weeks ending December 27, companies added an average of 80,000 positions per week.

$1 below are the data for January 15, 2026===

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fall back to 198k

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance fell from 207k to 198k last week, below the expected 215k. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance were 63k, below the expected 6.88M and the prior value of 6.88M.

The New York State manufacturing index for January rose from -3.7 in December last year to 7.7, above the market expectation of 1.

$1 below are the data for January 14, 2026===

The U.S. released November PPI: up 3% year over year, above market expectations of 2.7%; up 0.2% month over month, in line with expectations. Core CPI for the period rose 3.5% year over year, also above expectations of 2.9%; it was flat month over month, and thus below expectations by 0.2%.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month over month, above expectations of 0.5%.

$1 below are the data for January 13, 2026===

U.S. December core CPI rises 0.2% month over month, below expectations

The U.S. reported that December CPI rose 2.7% year over year, in line with market expectations, and rose 0.3% month over month, also in line with expectations. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, below expectations of 2.7%, and rose 0.2% month over month, below expectations of 0.3%.

$1 below are the data for January 9, 2026===

U.S. December unemployment rate falls from 4.6% in October to 4.4%

U.S. December unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in October to 4.4%, below expectations of 4.5%. Over the period, nonfarm payroll employment added 50k jobs, below the expected 70k, and the prior value was revised down to 56k.

U.S. January University of Michigan consumer confidence index rose from 52.9 in December last year to 54, above the market expectation of 53.5.

$1 below are the data for January 8, 2026===

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rise to 208k last week

U.S. initial claims for unemployment insurance rose from 200k to 208k last week, below the expected 212k. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance were 213k, above the expected 1.90 million and above the prior value of 215k.

U.S. October trade deficit narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion, below the market expectation of $58.7 billion. The prior value was $48.1 billion.

Data from HR firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in December fell 50% month over month to 35k, and fell 8% year over year.

The firm said that the total number of layoffs across companies for the full year reached 213k, up 58% year over year, the highest since 2020. But the number of layoffs announced in December this year by the firm was the lowest for the full year. Even though December is typically a slow season, considering the increase in hiring plans, this reflects a positive signal following the wave of layoffs.

Layoffs in government departments were the highest among all industries, at 308k people, surging 7 times year over year, mainly concentrated in the federal government. But the wave of layoffs was concentrated in the first quarter of this year; over the second through fourth quarters—9 months in total—government layoffs totaled fewer than 29k people.

Among private companies, the technology industry had the largest number of layoffs last year, at 154k, up 15% year over year. The firm said that, due to years of over-hiring plus other factors, and because the pace of artificial intelligence (AI) transformation far outpaced other industries, the industry has seen a wave of unemployment.

$1 below are the data for January 7, 2026===

The U.S. released its December ADP data, popularly dubbed “small nonfarm.” Employment increased by 41k jobs, below the expected 50k; the November figure was revised from a decline of 32k to 29,000.

$1 below are the data for January 5, 2026===

U.S. December ISM manufacturing index disappoints

The U.S. December ISM manufacturing index came in at 47.9, below the expected 48.4, with the prior value at 48.2. Among subcomponents, the new orders index was 47.7, the employment index was 44.9, and the prices index was 58.5.