BIT Research: Bitcoin Approaches Key Support, April May Bring a Directional Decision Period

This round of the crypto market is in an important transition phase. After Bitcoin has gone through several months of pullbacks, it has recently shown a modest rebound and is retesting the key support zone that it previously broke below. Overall, however, the market’s repair foundation still remains unstable, and at the trend level it is still relatively fragile. Macroeconomic pressure continues to accumulate, marginal liquidity is weakening, and at the same time, key policy events are approaching—causing the market’s pricing logic to be changing. Entering April, although the market still has somewhat bullish seasonal expectations, historical performance has been clearly differentiated; price action is more likely to be driven by liquidity, positioning structure, and macro catalysts together, rather than a simple repetition of the cycle.

Support repeatedly validated: trend fragility has not eased yet

Since Bitcoin entered a downtrend phase in October 2025, it has now tested the key support zone for the third time. Historically, similar structures often play out as follows: after support breaks, price quickly dips further, then forms a phase low and attempts to build a new support, but the overall trend never truly turns around. The current market is back in a similar position again, indicating that the support below is still undergoing repeated validation, and that trend fragility has not improved noticeably.

From a timing perspective, this kind of low-level consolidation typically does not immediately complete directional confirmation; instead, it needs to go through a period of choppy trading before entering the next stage of the price action. The current 65,000–66,000 dollar range has become the key watershed: once it breaks, the market may enter another accelerated downtrend phase, and the downside room may further point to even lower ranges.

Liquidity and macro lead: timing matters more than direction

April has long been seen as a relatively strong month, but historical data shows that this pattern is not stable. Especially when Bitcoin enters April in a non-strong stance, price action often shows phase-by-phase differentiation. In this round, Bitcoin enters the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before the prior rally, but the short-term tempo remains cautious.

More importantly, the market’s dominant factors have shifted from a single narrative to liquidity and macro variables. Rising oil prices lift inflation expectations, reinforcing the market’s view that central banks will maintain a relatively hawkish stance, and at the same time providing support for the dollar—these have historically all put pressure on Bitcoin. In addition, the slowdown in stablecoin growth and the sensitivity of ETF fund flows to policy signals also reflect that liquidity has not yet formed sustained upside momentum.

From the structure of time, the timing within April is also crucial: liquidity is relatively thin at the beginning of the month, and volatility is amplified; in the middle of the month, macro data and policy expectations are released in dense succession; and only as the FOMC meeting lands near the end of the month may the market gradually clarify its direction. This means that compared with simply judging whether prices will rise or fall, timing will become a more core trading variable.

Overall, Bitcoin is still in a relatively fragile phase, and short-term downside pressure has not yet been fully released. Under the base-case scenario, in the first half of April the market may continue to trade weakly; if the key support zone is broken, the downtrend tempo could accelerate further. But in terms of cycle positioning, this round of weakness may already be approaching the latter part after the down move. As tax-related selling pressure gradually fades and policy expectations become more stable, the market environment is expected to improve at the margin. Even if a rebound occurs, momentum is more likely to gradually show up in the middle or the second half of the month. For investors, at this stage you should not rely on simple seasonal patterns; instead, focus on changes in liquidity, macro variables, and the positioning structure. While controlling risk, wait for clearer repair signals to appear.

The above views are from BIT on Target, contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market involves risk, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve extremely high risks and instability. Make investment decisions only after carefully considering your personal situation and consulting financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.