ShouChuang Futures: Capacity reduction is extremely slow, and the long-term bullish outlook has been somewhat broken.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December 2025 the number of productive breeding sows on hand was 39.61 million head, down 1.16 million year over year, a 2.9% decline, and currently at 101.6% of the normal stock level. Mysteel data shows that in January and February 2026, the number of productive breeding sows is basically the same as in last December. De-capacity reduction is extremely slow, and because improvements in production efficiency drag on the impact of de-capacity reduction, the supply before October this year still remains at a high level, meaning the supply pressure is unlikely to ease. Under bearish market expectations, panic sentiment has spread somewhat; the valuations of far-month contracts have accelerated their declines across the board. The hog futures LH2607, LH2609, and LH2611 saw their fall rates exceed 3% one after another; positions that are already short can be held. (CICC Futures)