AI adoption rates are still too low to explain productivity increase, UBS says

SelfRugger

2026-02-22 01:56:20

AI adoption rates are still too low to explain productivity increase, UBS says

Sam Boughedda

Sat, February 21, 2026 at 7:30 PM GMT+9 1 min read

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Investing.com – A rise in U.S. productivity has sparked debate over whether artificial intelligence is already reshaping economic output, but UBS said current adoption levels are far too low to justify that conclusion.

Responding to commentary that recent gains reflect AI-driven efficiency, UBS economist Arend Kapteyn argued that “this is not the type of productivity that people have in mind when they think of AI.”

Kapteyn told investors in a note that output growth has largely been supported by “tech capex and (wealth effect) consumption by the top 20% of incomes,” rather than broad-based AI deployment across industries.

The bank highlighted research from the Kansas City Fed suggesting that “only 2% of the increase in productivity contributions can be explained by the variation in AI adoption shares across industries.”

Its own enterprise AI adoption survey underscores that point. UBS noted that “only 17% of firms say they are now implementing AI at scale,” up modestly from 14% last March.

Agentic AI adoption is even lower at just 5%. While companies continue to project faster rollout timelines, UBS said respondents “seem to consistently overestimate how fast they will implement AI.”

The biggest obstacle is still unclear ROI, followed by regulatory and compliance concerns and a lack of in-house expertise.

UBS believes that with over 80% of firms yet to integrate AI into production processes, minimal capex outlays, and no significant shift in hiring behaviour, it is “implausible to interpret the increase in productivity as evidence of ‘AI’ being implemented.”

According to UBS, meaningful AI-driven productivity gains will come, but “right now we are still in the ‘figuring it out’ phase.”

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