Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, major change! U.S. stocks suddenly shift! Oil prices soar

U.S. stocks rebounded during the day overnight. International gold, silver, and crude oil futures prices all surged significantly.

On the early morning of February 19 Beijing time, the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes from January showed that most participants agreed to keep the key interest rate unchanged within the 3.5% to 3.75% range. However, there were disagreements among officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

U.S. stocks close higher, oil prices soar

On February 18, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.78%, the S&P 500 up 0.56%, and the Dow Jones up 0.26%.

Large technology stocks mostly rose, with Nvidia, Netflix, and Amazon gaining over 1%, while Apple, Tesla, Google, and Meta saw modest increases.

Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Artis Solar rising over 4%, Futu Holdings up over 2%; Century Internet fell over 9%, WeRide down over 4%, and Kingsoft Cloud down over 3%.

COMEX gold futures closed up 1.95%, and COMEX silver futures closed up 4.92%. After the market opened on February 19, spot gold and silver prices fluctuated slightly.

Analysts say that the latest Fed policy meeting minutes highlight concerns about inflation, and there are disagreements among officials about the future path of monetary policy. The U.S. still indicates the possibility of military action against Iran, which led to a sharp rise in international oil prices.

International oil prices surge

International crude oil futures surged. WTI crude oil March contracts rose 4.59%, closing at $65.19 per barrel; Brent crude oil April contracts rose 4.35%, closing at $70.35 per barrel.

According to CCTV News, on the 18th local time, two Israeli sources said that due to signs indicating a possible joint attack against Iran in the coming days, Israel has raised its national alert level and is accelerating military preparations.

On the 18th local time, according to U.S. senior officials, President Trump’s national security advisor discussed Iran issues during a White House Situation Room meeting, and all U.S. military units involved in Middle East deployments should be in place by mid-March.

Federal Reserve rate cut disagreements

The meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that “almost all” Federal Reserve officials agreed to keep interest rates steady, viewing this as an assessment of the economy after a 75 basis point rate cut last year. Only “a few” officials supported a rate cut.

Fed Governors Waller and Stephen Milam both voted against the decision, citing concerns that the labor market might weaken.

However, opinions among the other 17 officials were divided, with some directly mentioning that if inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, rate hikes could occur. Currently, inflation is about one percentage point above that level.

According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 5.9%, with a 94.1% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by April is 20.5%, with a 78.5% chance of no change, and a 1.0% chance of a 50 basis point cut. The chance of a 25 basis point cut by June is 49.8%.