#我在Gate广场过新年 I personally feel that the U.S. stock market is likely to remain stable this year. It has already gained a lot in the past two years, so it’s time to trade space for time. That’s why the Nasdaq has been sideways for several months recently.

I don’t think a major correction is very likely at the moment. We are currently in a rate-cutting cycle (not a recession), and at the same time, Trump’s midterm elections are in November. From a macro perspective, it’s hard to see a big adjustment happening.
Of course, black swan events are unpredictable.
The biggest current issue is that no new growth space has been found; the entire U.S. stock market is waiting. Waiting for what? AI infrastructure has attracted nearly one trillion dollars in investment, but so far, the only thing we see is the emergence of large language models, and people are already fatigued.
These large language models do improve productivity to some extent, but not enough to justify spending so much money. After burning so much cash, we need something truly disruptive—something that can completely rewrite productivity.
Right now, the high-speed roads are built, but are there cars running on them? Can cars actually run? Nobody knows for sure.
AI shouldn’t just be played with in text boxes; it needs to genuinely perceive the world and physically interact with it.
Currently, the only visible example is Tesla’s autonomous driving. (Not an advertisement, Elon Musk doesn’t need me to pay him).
If Tesla’s autonomous driving can work reliably, it proves that AI is not a bubble. It can truly understand the real world, and combined with business models like autonomous taxis, it can make money. Okay, the AI story can continue, and the U.S. stock market can keep rising.
Conversely, if AI proves to be a false dawn, then it’s over. All the money spent becomes real debt—you can think of it as a bad loan. The whole world could be doomed together.
So, 2026 is a critical year.