Xunce(03317) receives Guotai Haitong's "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 104.78

CITIC Securities APP has learned that recently, Guotai Haitong Securities initiated coverage of Xunce (03317) with an “Overweight” rating and a target price of HKD 104.78, corresponding to a target market capitalization of HKD 33.8 billion. During this critical turning point where AI large models are shifting from general capabilities to deepening in vertical scenarios, the research report analyzes that Xunce Technology, with its core “data flow” capability, is replicating the “Chinese version of Palantir” model across multiple fields beyond asset management.

Guotai Haitong’s main points are as follows:

Shift in AI Competition Paradigm: From “Larger Models” to “Better Data Flows”

The AI industry is currently undergoing a strategic shift. For large models to generate real business value, they must move from homogeneous general capabilities to differentiated vertical scenarios. The core barrier for models to penetrate specific businesses is no longer algorithmic advantage—whether they can embed into real business data streams is the strategic key.

“The real-time data processing market for Chinese enterprises is a blue ocean,” the report states. Currently, enterprise data management is transitioning from a “fragmented” to a “holistic” paradigm: in the past, CRM, SCM, ERP systems primarily segmented data and departmental nodes, with local decision-making algorithms and approval processes; in the AI era, embedding global algorithm models into business and data flows, enabling real-time automatic decision-making based on data, will replace traditional departmental decision redundancies, greatly improving strategic efficiency.

For example, financial risk control requires millisecond-level trading data; city dispatch relies on real-time traffic flow; manufacturing management depends on sensor signals from production lines; healthcare needs real-time scheduling and millisecond remote surgical operation data streams; energy industry requires real-time flow signals to regulate peak and valley loads—these vertical scenarios demand higher standards for data real-time performance, accuracy, and traceability. The value anchor of the industry chain is shifting from pursuing “bigger models” to building “better data flows.”

Decade of Deep Cultivation to Build Barriers, Leading in Real-Time Data AI

The report notes that Xunce Technology has been deeply engaged in the real-time data infrastructure industry for ten years. Its unified data platform can complete the collection, cleaning, management, and analysis of multi-source heterogeneous data within seconds, perfectly meeting enterprise real-time decision needs. Starting from asset management, the company has built a full lifecycle solution covering investment portfolio monitoring, order execution, valuation, risk management, and compliance, ranking at the top in real-time data in 2024.

According to Frost & Sullivan data, the scale of China’s real-time data infrastructure and analytics market grew at a CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, expected to reach 50.5 billion yuan by 2029. Currently, market penetration is less than 4%, but under the catalysis of AI large models, explosive growth is imminent. Data, as the fifth major production factor, has been incorporated into national strategies; policies such as the “Data Twenty Articles” and data asset inclusion are being implemented, driving enterprises to increase investment in data infrastructure.

Diversified Expansion Opens Space, Both Customers and ARPU Rise

While consolidating its asset management advantages, Xunce actively promotes cross-industry deployment, extending its business into financial services (beyond asset management), urban management, production management, and telecommunications, covering China’s three major state-owned telecom operators. From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of revenue from diversified industries increased from 26% to 61%, becoming an important growth engine.

The company’s sustainable business model is validated by data: from 2022 to 2024, paying customers increased from 182 to 232, and ARPU rose from 1.58 million yuan to 2.72 million yuan. With increasing brand recognition and ongoing solution optimization, the company’s bargaining power is expected to further strengthen.

Guotai Haitong forecasts that the company’s revenue for 2025-2027 will be 1.183 billion, 2.177 billion, and 3.311 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 87%, 84%, and 52%; net profit attributable to parent is expected to turn profitable in 2026 at 101 million yuan, further growing to 311 million yuan in 2027.