【$JUP Signal】Hold cash and wait for a weak rebound in a downtrend

$JUP In a long-term downtrend, a weak rebound is underway, with the price suppressed below the EMA20 (0.1453). The overall structure remains bearish.

🎯Direction: Hold cash (NoPosition)

Market analysis: On the 4H chart, the price was rejected at 0.1451 and has since fallen back. The current price of 0.1415 is below the EMA20, confirming that this moving average acts as an effective dynamic resistance. The daily trend clearly shows a continuous decline since the high of 0.2324 on January 14, with no bottom structure formed.

Hardcore logic: The funding rate (-0.0075%) is negative, but open interest (OI) remains stable rather than increasing, ruling out a short squeeze. This more likely indicates market sentiment is bearish, with longs paying funds to shorts.

Depth imbalance data shows buy-side depth (Bids) is 15.47% thicker than sell-side (Asks), but the price has not risen accordingly, indicating that buy orders below may be passive or "fake support," and the main force has no intention of actively pushing the price higher at this level. RSI (38.88) is in a weak zone but not oversold, leaving room for further downside.

Current rebound momentum is insufficient, and the price has not effectively broken above key resistances (EMA20 and previous structural highs), which is a normal correction within a downtrend. There is no technical support for long positions, and short positions are less attractive due to negative funding rates and the price being at a local low, resulting in a poor risk-reward ratio.

Trading plan: Maintain a hold position and wait for clearer signals. If the price can break through and stabilize above EMA20 (0.1453), and OI begins to rise, then reassess long opportunities. If the rebound fails and the price drops below the recent low of 0.1359 again, consider shorting with the trend.

Trade here 👇 $JUP

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