1. Big Picture: Long-term Trend Direction (Monthly, Weekly, 5-Day Charts)

From the **monthly chart** and **weekly chart**, ETH is currently in a **bottom consolidation phase after a major downtrend**.

- **Monthly Chart**: After a prolonged decline, the price has found support around 1443, but overhead resistance remains strong, and the overall trend is bearish.
- **Weekly Chart**: Currently around 1968, the MACD indicator shows signs of rebound, but overall remains in a weak zone, indicating the major trend has not fully reversed.
- **5-Day Chart**: The recent correction from the 2015 high has bottomed out at 1744. Currently, it is consolidating within the range of 1744-2015.

**Conclusion**: The main trend is currently “rebound blocked, waiting for direction.” It’s not a one-sided bull market or bear market, but a **bottoming phase**.

### 2. Medium-term Cycle: Daily Chart Positioning (1-Day Chart)

The **1-day chart** is very critical as it reveals the core contradiction:

- **Range Consolidation**: The current price (1968) is exactly at the **midpoint** of the range. Resistance is around 2015, support is near 1900-1922.
- **MACD Indicator**: The MACD is tangled below zero, with green bars shrinking but not turning red, indicating bearish momentum is weakening but bulls haven't fully taken control.
- **Pattern Structure**: The rebound from 1744 formed an “N-shaped” pattern, but now faces resistance around 1980 and has pulled back, showing selling pressure still exists above.

**Conclusion**: The daily level currently shows **weak consolidation**, with 1968 as the dividing line between bulls and bears.

### 3. Short-term Cycle: 1-Hour and 15-Minute Charts (Key Trading Zones)

1-Hour Chart Analysis

- **Trend**: Since dropping from 2015, the rebound peaked at 1980, then pulled back to 1968. The current candlestick pattern is a **“small platform”**.
- **Support & Resistance**: Resistance at 1980, support at 1954. As long as it doesn’t break below 1954, there’s still a chance for a short-term rebound.

#### 15-Minute Chart Analysis

- **Details**: The “deep V” and “spinning top” patterns we saw earlier are reflected here. The current 15-minute chart shows price oscillating between 1968-1970.
- **Momentum**: The MACD is close to zero, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears, waiting for a clear direction.

### 4. Overall Summary and Future Trend Projection

#### Current Structure Summary

The current ETH movement can be summarized as: **“Long-term bottoming, medium-term consolidation, short-term choosing direction.”**

- **Position**: At the critical 1968 node, with overhead resistance near 2000 and support around 1950.
- **State**: Bulls and bears are evenly matched at this level; neither side can fully dominate.

#### Possible Future Scenarios

1. Scenario A: Breakout Upward (Probability 30%)
- **Trigger**: If the price stabilizes above 1975 and breaks through 1980 with volume, it may test the 2000 level.
- **Action**: After breakout, go light on longs, target 2015.
2. Scenario B: Pullback Downward (Probability 50%)
- **Trigger**: If the price falls below 1960, it will test support at 1954. If it breaks below 1954, it may seek support around 1930-1940.
- **Action**: If it cannot rebound above 1970, consider short positions with stops near 1975, targeting 1950.
3. Scenario C: Range-bound Consolidation (Probability 20%)
- **Trigger**: Price oscillates between 1960-1975 without breaking out.
- **Action**: Buy low and sell high within the range, but this is the most difficult trading environment, prone to false signals. Watching and waiting is recommended.

### 5. Final Trading Recommendations

- **Short-term traders**: Focus on the **1970** resistance level. If it cannot break through, consider shorting; if it falls below **1960**, confirm short-term weakness and go short accordingly.
- **Medium to long-term traders**: Currently in a bottoming zone, avoid chasing highs. Wait patiently for a pullback to around 1920-1930 before considering long positions.
- **Mindset Management**: The current market is like “boiling frogs in warm water”—no clear big trend, which is the easiest way to lose money. **Better to miss a trade than to make a mistake**.

**One-sentence summary**: ETH is currently “grinding” around 1968, with a high probability of heading down to find support at 1950. Short-term bias is bearish; be cautious about chasing rallies.