Bitcoin in 2026: between 154K and the abyss? The peak of volatility according to analysts

Cryptocurrencies enter 2026 with fundamental questions about their future. While Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around 90.76K dollars, with an all-time high reached at 126.08K, market experts continue to debate what the next significant move will be.

When price becomes less important than cycles

Bitcoin’s recent history tells a fascinating story. From the moment $19,000 seemed unreachable, to the hype of 2022 when FTX shook the entire ecosystem, Bitcoin has demonstrated extraordinary resilience. Today, surpassing the $60,000 mark of 2021 no longer generates the same excitement: investors remain puzzled, waiting for clarity.

What has radically changed is the asset’s status. Bitcoin is no longer a speculative experiment: wealth managers with trillions of dollars are launching ETFs based on it, MicroStrategy alone holds over 600,000 BTC, and major global financial institutions now offer cryptocurrency trading services instead of closing accounts. This is an evolution that speaks of a new phase of maturity.

Henry Zeberg’s scenario: the peak before the fall?

Financial analyst Henrik Zeberg has presented a disturbing technical interpretation. According to his chart analysis, Bitcoin could be at the peak of a large-scale expansion movement. His thesis? A final rally toward 154,000 dollars, followed by a devastating crash.

His technical observations are precise:

• Identification of an expanding diagonal at its climax
• The MACD on a monthly basis shows reversal signals
• The pattern suggests not a bullish continuation, but a highly bearish phase
• Technical downside targets range between $3,000 and $4,000, potentially even lower

Impossible? Let’s look at history

Zeberg does not dwell only on pessimism: he provides a historical basis. The Nasdaq experienced an 80-85% decline during the dot-com bubble burst. Bitcoin, in its short but turbulent journey, has always surpassed excesses in both directions – upward and downward.

If the AI and cryptocurrency bubble were to burst with the same intensity, the decline could reach 97-98%. In such a scenario, holding BTC would not be desirable for those seeking stability.

The current state: between hope and caution

2026 remains a crucial year. If geopolitical conditions normalize, monetary expansion accelerates, and AI growth continues to support risk markets, Bitcoin could find new support levels. Conversely, if macroeconomic volatility in 2025 extends, bearish declines could materialize.

The key for investors is understanding that Bitcoin is at a significant peak of uncertainty – not just in price, but in narrative. The next chapter of 2026 will depend on macro factors, institutional adoption, and, not least, the collective market sentiment.