Friends who have been closely watching the market recently should have felt the intense volatility. Rapid decline in the early hours, followed by a rebound in the morning, especially with repeated tests around the 95,000 level, have led many traders to shout "bull market restart." But I want to pour cold water on that: don’t be fooled by the short-term rebound.

Only by reviewing the complete cycle from $26,000 to $126,000 can we truly understand the essence of the current market. That period was a typical bull market pattern—each dip to key support levels attracted capital to buy in. The MVRV ratio remained stable between 1-2, the Fear & Greed Index stayed above 60 for a long time, and the daily 200 moving average was never effectively broken. These are standard characteristics of a bull market.

But the current situation is completely different. The market structure has undergone a fundamental change.

First, let’s look at the most direct technical signals. The 95,000 level is not just a simple round number; it bears heavy pressure from trapped positions—there is a dense trading zone of previous highs nearby. More importantly, the daily MACD has shown a bearish divergence, and 95,000 is the first resistance test after this divergence. Recent attempts to push above 94,500 have been crushed, with decreasing volume each time, indicating that the buying momentum of the bulls is clearly waning.

If the bulls still have enough enthusiasm, they should be able to break through this resistance. But what is the current performance? Repeated tests, repeated failures, and volume still hitting new lows. This "volume-price divergence" is always a contrarian signal in technical analysis—prices are rising, but trading activity is declining, indicating that participants’ enthusiasm has already fallen from its peak.

From a fundamental perspective, where does the driving force come from during the cycle from $26,000 to $126,000? Factors such as institutional recognition, macro liquidity, and continuous allocation of spot ETFs. But are these forces still present? The market is answering this question with concrete data—the momentum of new capital is weakening, and institutional participation is declining marginally.

So, how should we view this rebound? Rather than calling it a return of the bull market, it’s better to see it as a technical rebound within a bear market. In academic terms, it’s called a "dead cat bounce"—a dead cat falling from a sufficient height will bounce back a bit. But this rebound cannot change the ultimate direction.

What does this mean for traders? It suggests that the rebound’s potential is likely overestimated. Under the background of MACD bearish divergence and shrinking volume, even if the price breaks through 95,000, subsequent resistance will be greater. Every such technical pattern in history has ended in failure.

Of course, this doesn’t mean Bitcoin will drop straight down. Rebounds can sometimes be fierce, even reaching new highs, but that doesn’t change the overall bear cycle. The smarter approach is to recognize the trend, not be fooled by short-term gains. Those shouting "bull market return" are mostly seeking psychological comfort for their holdings.

Market cycles are always cruel; those who remain objective are more likely to survive through the cycle.