Friends, after two months of volatility, this rebound in DOGE finally seems a bit unusual. But if we’re to say that a true reversal is already confirmed, I have to be honest — we still need to see how it holds at the $0.15 level. I’ve been watching the charts for three days, and the more I think about it, the more I feel that this price level isn’t simple; behind it, there’s a game of large capital holding changes and strategic positioning.

**Why did the previous two rebounds fail? The core reason is quite straightforward**

I’ve analyzed this multiple times before. In November and December, there were RSI divergence signals, which did attract many retail investors to buy the dip. But what happened? Both only rose by 13% and 17% respectively before crashing down again. This kind of market pattern has a characteristic — it looks like a “rescue” signal, but in reality, it’s a trap.

Why does this happen? It all starts with the RSI indicator itself. RSI divergence is simply the phenomenon where price and momentum are out of sync. When there’s a bullish divergence with the price making new lows but momentum not making new lows, it usually indicates that selling pressure is waning. Sounds good, right? The problem is, signals are just signals — whether big money buys in or not is the key to determining the market’s direction.

And that’s where the two previous failures happened. Medium-sized whales holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE, upon seeing the rebound, rushed to sell off and take profits, effectively snuffing out the rally before it could really ignite. The data is very clear: on November 25th, the holdings of these medium whales dropped from 10.91 billion to 10.72 billion DOGE, causing the market to cool off instantly. The situation on December 21st was even more extreme.

**What’s different this time**

The current situation is that the same RSI divergence signal has appeared, but this time, the medium-sized whales are not “running away.” This is a crucial divergence. The holdings data show that large capital is actually gradually building positions, indicating they have different expectations for the future trend.

Of course, the $0.15 level still needs to be watched carefully. This isn’t just a typical technical resistance; it’s a zone of intense capital reallocation and strategic game-playing. If whales start to release selling pressure here, the positive signals from before could be completely reversed.

**To put it simply**

Technical support is present, and large capital isn’t showing signs of dumping for now — these are optimistic signals. But don’t rush to make bets just yet — it’s more prudent to stay observant until the $0.15 breakout is confirmed.