2024 US CPI Trend Panorama: Release Schedule, Indicator Analysis, and Forecast Interpretation

CPI Announcement Schedule Preview: Why Should Investors Pay Attention to This Timing?

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most sensitive economic indicators in the global financial markets. Once its release time is confirmed, it often triggers a chain reaction in asset prices. This is because CPI release times usually precede the US PCE data, which is the Federal Reserve’s primary basis for monetary policy decisions. In other words, data released after the CPI announcement time directly influences the Fed’s decision-making pace, thereby affecting global stock markets, forex, and crypto markets.

The US CPI data is released monthly, typically on the first business day of each month or the closest business day, but the exact timing varies due to daylight saving time:

• During Daylight Saving Time (approximately March-November): 20:30 Taiwan Time
• During Standard Time (approximately November-March): 21:30 Taiwan Time

Complete 2024 Release Schedule

Investors should mark these dates on their calendars in advance, as volatility tends to be most intense before and after data releases.

CPI, Core CPI, PCE — Which Is Most Important? Clarifying the Differences

There are many indicators measuring US inflation, but only two main camps truly influence asset trends: the CPI series and the PCE series. Each series has multiple variants, often confusing novice investors.

CPI vs Core CPI: Food and Energy Are Decisive Factors

US CPI provides a panoramic view of prices, covering all consumer goods, including the most volatile items like food and energy. This makes CPI highly sensitive to short-term shocks such as oil price surges or food shortages.

Core CPI uses a “removal method,” excluding food and energy, focusing only on other goods and services. This approach helps to better identify underlying inflation trends and avoid short-term noise.

In simple terms, CPI is like a mirror revealing all price fluctuations; core CPI is a “filter” that smooths out short-term volatility to show long-term trends.

CPI vs PCE: The Battle Behind Calculation Methods

The fundamental difference lies in weighting calculation methods:

• CPI uses a Laspeyres index: The basket composition is fixed for the year and does not adjust for price changes.
• PCE uses a chain-weighted index: The basket dynamically adjusts; if oil prices surge, consumers may substitute away from oil, reducing its weight automatically.

This means PCE better reflects actual consumer behavior and has higher “closeness” to real-world spending. The Fed prefers PCE because it more accurately captures consumer choices under different economic conditions.

Year-over-Year vs Month-over-Month: Why Is the Yearly Rate More Focused?

• Month-over-Month: Compares last month to this month, susceptible to seasonal effects (e.g., heating costs in winter, air conditioning in summer).
• Year-over-Year: Compares the same period last year, automatically smoothing out most seasonal fluctuations and better reflecting true price trends.

The two most closely watched indicators in the market are the US CPI Year-over-Year and the US PCE Year-over-Year. Among them:

• CPI YoY is released earliest and often triggers the most market reaction.
• PCE YoY is released later but is a key indicator for Fed policy.

Generally, their trends align closely, but CPI’s early release often makes it the “signal light” for markets.

Composition of US CPI: Which Subcategories Are Most Worth Tracking?

US CPI is not a single number but a “weighted basket” composed of over a dozen detailed categories. Understanding the weightings helps investors better anticipate CPI movements.

Based on end-2023 data, main categories and their approximate weights are:

• Housing-related (30-40%): Rent, mortgage interest, maintenance. Largest component, a key anchor for CPI
• Food & Beverages (13-15%): Rice, flour, oil, meat, drinks, daily consumables
• Transportation (5-6%) + New Cars (3-5%) + Used Cars (2-3%): Affected by oil prices and supply chain factors
• Healthcare (7-9%): Reflects rising US medical costs
• Energy (6-8%): Crude oil, natural gas, electricity, highly volatile
• Education & Communication (6-7%): Internet, phone, education costs
• Leisure & Apparel (3-5%) + Clothing (2-3%): Smaller share but indicative of consumer preferences

Investors should focus on housing and food & beverages, as they account for over 43% of CPI and directly influence its level.

The Three Major Drivers of US CPI in 2024: Election, Rate Cuts, Geopolitics

Why focus on CPI in 2024? Because it’s a “super-variable year,” with at least three forces simultaneously impacting prices.

Driver 1: US Election and Policy Uncertainty

The US presidential election is in November 2024. Regardless of the winner, candidates tend to make excessive promises to win votes. Coupled with geopolitical tensions, US policies may shift toward “de-globalization” and “domestication,” which could:

• Push up import prices (tariffs)
• Stimulate domestic spending (government procurement)
• Slow down inflation decline

Driver 2: The Fed’s Rate Cut Pace as a Mystery

According to CME FedWatch, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 6 basis points before the end of 2024. This reflects a belief that US CPI will trend downward overall. However, the timing and magnitude of rate cuts remain uncertain, directly affecting CPI forecasts.

Driver 3: Red Sea Crisis and Logistics Costs

Since late 2023, attacks by Houthi forces have forced shipping companies to reroute around the Red Sea via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 2-3 weeks to Asia-Europe routes and increasing freight costs by over 100%. While less severe than the COVID disruptions of 2020 or the “Ever Given” incident in 2021, regional logistics cost increases will eventually pass through to consumer prices.

30-Year Perspective: CPI Patterns Across Four Economic Cycles

Looking back from the 1990s to today, the US has experienced four major CPI swings, each linked to economic crises or policy stimuli:

First (1990-1991): Savings & Loan crisis + Gulf War oil shock, CPI sharply declined

Second (2000-2001): Dot-com bubble + 9/11, recession dragged down prices

Third (2008-2009): Subprime mortgage crisis, financial system collapse suppressed inflation

Fourth (2020-2022): Most educational:

• March 2020: Global shutdown, CPI plummeted
• End 2020–mid 2022: Fed’s ultra-loose policy + massive government stimulus, CPI soared to 40-year highs
• Mid 2022 onward: Supply chain recovery + normalization of global logistics, CPI gradually declined month by month

This history clearly shows that global logistics conditions have a far greater impact on US inflation than previously thought. The 2020 pandemic disrupted global logistics, distorting price signals; now, the Red Sea tensions again highlight the importance of transportation costs.

2024 US CPI Forecast: Why Do We Expect “Low First, High Then Low”?

Analyzing the 2024 CPI trend starts with the US economic fundamentals. The IMF’s latest forecasts:

• US GDP growth in 2024: 2.1%, second globally, indicating resilience
• Global inflation in 2024: 5.8%, significantly lower than 2023
• US growth in 2025: 1.7%

This suggests the US economy won’t fall into recession but will see weakening growth, exerting mild downward pressure on inflation.

Refining the outlook further, we see a “three-phase” pattern:

Q1: Bottoming phase
H1 2023 saw volatile commodity prices downward, creating a low base effect, likely causing CPI YoY to hit its lowest point in Q1 2024.

Q2: Rebound phase
As base effects fade and crude oil inventories decline (supporting oil prices), CPI may show a modest rebound in Q2. Pre-election policy expectations could also boost commodity price outlooks.

H2: Downward phase
Supply side stabilizes, rate cut expectations materialize, and CPI resumes its downward trend.

Overall assessment: In 2024, US CPI will mainly trend downward, with some rebounds, and overall volatility will be moderate. For US stocks, this is mildly bearish, as low inflation makes it harder for companies to sustain high profit growth.

Investor Action Checklist

• ✓ Mark each month’s CPI release time on your calendar (Taiwan Time 20:30 or 21:30)
• ✓ Focus on CPI YoY rather than core CPI
• ✓ Watch housing and food & beverage categories, which together account for over 43%
• ✓ Track Red Sea shipping conditions and freight changes, as new price risks
• ✓ Keep an eye on the Fed’s rate cut pace, which influences CPI expectations

In short, the US CPI release time is not just a calendar mark but a signal for global asset allocation. Preparing early and responding promptly can help seize opportunities amid volatility.