As of the afternoon of January 6th, Ethereum is quoted around $3,200. Its recent performance has been quite good. The daily chart has been rising for 6 consecutive days, just breaking through the MA60 moving average, and the MACD has also moved back above the zero line, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The entire price is moving within a sideways upward channel, with resistance levels around 3230, 3300, and 3350, while support levels are at 3180, 3140, and 3100.

Looking at the 24-hour chart, the price has increased by approximately 1.2%, with volume gradually expanding. This combination of volume and price action is quite healthy. On the 4-hour chart, the price is oscillating between 3100 and 3230, with Bollinger Bands narrowing, indicating a consolidation phase. The RSI indicator is in a neutral position, with no obvious overbought or oversold signals.

Over the next one to three months, several factors are worth paying attention to. The expectation of a Fed rate cut remains, especially with January's CPI data being a key factor. A weaker dollar generally benefits cryptocurrencies. Ethereum's staking volume remains stable above 30 million ETH, and the DeFi and RWA ecosystems are quite active. Gas fees are also maintained at low levels. From a capital perspective, ETF outflows have slowed, and some large whales are accumulating on dips, gradually restoring bullish sentiment.

If Ethereum can hold above 3230, there is a high probability of testing the previous high around 3400. However, if it retraces to the 3000-3100 range, that could be a good opportunity for a low-position swing buy.

Looking at the entire 2026 year, spot ETF inflows continue, and institutional allocation demand is increasing. Ethereum will also have technical upgrades like Proto-Danksharding, which can improve performance and scalability. The process of crypto regulation is accelerating, and the risk margin for regulation is improving.

Of course, there is also some caution. If the Fed's rate cut is less than expected and the dollar index rebounds, risk assets could be pressured. The SEC's stance on Ethereum's classification as a security remains uncertain. Additionally, if market leverage becomes too high, a large-scale liquidation could trigger significant price corrections.

Overall, the price range for the year is expected to be neutral between $2,800 and $3,800. Optimistically, it could break through $4,000, while pessimistically, it might fall below $2,500.

In terms of trading strategy, for spot trading and swing positions, consider buying on dips around 3100 to 3140, targeting 3230 to 3300, with a stop-loss below 3080. If the price breaks above 3230 with volume confirmation, you can chase for gains towards 3300 to 3350. Conversely, if it falls below 3100, it’s better to wait or reduce positions. Regardless of the approach, individual position sizes should not exceed 10%, and stop-losses should not be more than 5% below the entry price. The most important thing is to avoid heavy leverage and overexposure.