Is it a good time to buy gold now in 2025? Value, risks, and smart investment strategies

Gold prices have surged to an all-time high recently, prompting many investors to ask Is it a good time to buy gold or are we already at the peak? This article will clarify the doubts step by step.

Current Gold Price Situation: Where Are We and Where Are We Going

Let’s look at the statistics first. Gold prices hit $2,790 per ounce in October 2024, marking a record high. Since then, there has been some correction, but prices remain at elevated levels.

What has driven prices this high? Several factors play a role:

Geopolitical Tensions - The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, conflicts in the Middle East, and concerns over the US presidential election have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, making gold the first choice.

Central Bank Purchases - In the first quarter of 2024, central banks worldwide bought a net 290 tons of gold, 36% higher than the quarterly average. Major buyers include China, India, and Turkey, which are trying to reduce reliance on the US dollar.

Interest Rate Policies - Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2025 make gold more attractive, as the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases.

Will Gold Prices Continue to Rise? Analyzing Both Technical and Fundamental Perspectives

From a fundamental perspective, the signals are positive. Central banks continue to buy, geopolitical risks persist, and long-term inflation concerns remain. All these factors support further price increases.

From a technical perspective, gold has a key support level at $2,447 per ounce ( at the MA200 line ). Staying above this support indicates a continued bullish trend. The RSI index has fallen from overbought levels, suggesting that a short-term correction or consolidation may occur before further gains.

What Do Leading Financial Institutions Say?

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its forecast, expecting gold to reach $2,700 per ounce, citing strong demand from central banks and ongoing geopolitical risks.

J.P. Morgan is more cautious but still positive. They believe that although high interest rates may exert short-term pressure, expected rate cuts by the Fed and central bank demand will support prices.

FX Empire has an optimistic outlook, suggesting that if conflicts intensify or a recession occurs, gold could hit $3,000 per ounce within 2025.

Morgan Stanley forecasts gold reaching $2,800 in 2025.

UBS warns that the rapid price increase may lead to some short-term consolidation.

In summary, most leading banks are optimistic about gold prices in the medium to long term, with target ranges between $2,600 and $3,000 per ounce.

Is It a Good Time to Buy Gold? How to Invest Properly

Holding Period - Long-term investment (3-5 years or more). Gold helps diversify risk because it often moves inversely to stocks. For short-term investments (6 months-1 year), be cautious of volatility.

Investment Allocation - Experts recommend allocating 5-10% of your portfolio to gold. For example, if you have 1 million THB, consider investing 50,000-100,000 THB, not exceeding 15-20% to maintain balance.

Entry Points - If prices drop near $2,447 per ounce, it’s a key level. If they fall below $2,500, it could be an opportunity to use Dollar-Cost Averaging (buy gradually instead of a lump sum).

Risks to Know - Gold is a safe asset but not entirely risk-free. In the short term, prices can decline 10-15% due to market volatility, or even 20-25% in a crisis. Be prepared for such fluctuations.

Summary: Is It a Good Idea to Buy Gold Now?

All perspectives converge that buying gold now is not a bad move, especially for long-term investing. Fundamental signals (central bank demand, geopolitical risks), and technical indicators (strong support levels, declining RSI) all support further upside.

However, don’t buy all at once. Keep it to 5-10% of your portfolio, buy gradually rather than all at once, and be prepared for short-term volatility.

Most importantly, do not invest money needed for short-term expenses. Gold investing requires patience, waiting for the fundamentals to work over the long term.